celer

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

730.5	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
94.240	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
84.028	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
64.131	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
53.168	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
45.483	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
37.334	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
37.239	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
33.468	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
29.880	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
29.024	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
28.998	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
27.308	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
24.758	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
19.787	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
18.078	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
16.861	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
14.631	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
14.264	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
14.263	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
13.804	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
13.183	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
12.226	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
11.717	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
10.601	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
9.874	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
9.481	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
8.575	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
7.822	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
7.609	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
7.239	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
7.020	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
6.933	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
6.756	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
5.027	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
3.573	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
2.831	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
-	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
-	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
-	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
-	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
-1.461	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-2.600	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-6.875	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
-10.760	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
-12.885	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-13.399	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
-13.707	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
-39.064	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary