80.367 | Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21? | Binary |
79.488 | Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021? | Binary |
78.817 | Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021? | Binary |
68.231 | Will Trump freely leave the White House? | Binary |
62.200 | For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1? | Binary |
58.560 | Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021? | Binary |
45.484 | Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021? | Binary |
41.144 | How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021? | Continuous |
40.775 | Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? | Binary |
38.366 | Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? | Binary |
35.707 | When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? | Continuous |
35.021 | Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021? | Binary |
30.585 | Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person? | Binary |
27.705 | Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election? | Binary |
27.658 | How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range] | Continuous |
27.254 | Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year? | Binary |
26.213 | Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom? | Binary |
25.713 | Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021? | Binary |
24.139 | Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021? | Binary |
20.447 | How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021? | Continuous |
18.431 | Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? | Binary |
16.617 | When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? | Continuous |
10.002 | Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? | Binary |
8.434 | When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement? | Continuous |
1.269 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s? | Binary |
1.001 | Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself? | Binary |
-0.592 | In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20] | Continuous |
-0.930 | By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service? | Binary |
-7.149 | Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021? | Binary |
-8.604 | Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family? | Binary |
-16.575 | Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021? | Binary |
-117.577 | Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges? | Binary |
-162.853 | Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases? | Continuous |