mgrzad

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.127k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
92.153	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
89.442	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
87.692	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
80.968	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
71.188	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
71.095	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
69.490	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
69.285	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
65.399	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
62.391	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
61.216	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
53.590	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
52.688	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
50.023	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
46.457	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
46.082	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
45.378	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
44.277	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
33.087	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
32.640	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
30.584	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
29.989	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
29.867	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
28.387	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
28.007	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
22.576	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
16.892	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
13.836	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
12.420	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
11.135	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
10.067	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
9.811	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
8.241	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
7.269	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
4.935	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
1.488	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-2.811	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-15.687	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
-27.153	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-28.243	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
-35.704	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
-36.673	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-47.157	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-47.322	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
-53.256	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-69.158	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous