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User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2019

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

797	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
61.689	How many MPs will the "Independent Group" have after the next UK general election?	Continuous
44.224	Will Algeria hold Presidential Election in 2019?	Binary
41.281	Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019?	Binary
40.833	Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020?	Binary
35.411	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020?	Binary
33.971	Will OpenAI Five win against the reigning Dota 2 world champions OG?	Binary
32.184	Will the UK revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020?	Binary
32.036	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018	Binary
31.937	Will the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) have an IPO before 30 November 2019?	Binary
31.361	Will Election Betting Odds report a >60% chance of a Trump 2020 presidential election victory by November 30, 2019?	Binary
31.256	If the UK participates in the European Parliament elections in 2019, what percentage of the popular vote will the Brexit Party win?	Continuous
30.301	Will US troops intervene in Venezuela?	Binary
30.287	Will Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found in 2019?	Binary
29.960	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in 2019?	Binary
27.589	Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?	Binary
26.687	Will Elon Musk still be CEO of Tesla on January 1, 2020?	Binary
26.171	Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial become known in 2019?	Binary
23.936	Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500?	Binary
22.359	Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas Gift?	Binary
22.006	Will Czech Republic's Prime Minister Andrej Babiš experience a significant leadership disruption between 20 June 2019 and 22 August 2019?	Binary
21.730	Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Less support for psychiatric commitment among the committed?	Binary
20.501	Will Mitt Romney challenge Donald Trump in the Republican Primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
19.103	Will an EU country veto an extension of Brexit's deliberation before Oct 31st 2019?	Binary
19.008	Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?	Binary
18.469	Will the current Dutch cabinet keep a majority in the Dutch senate after the election on May 27 2019?	Binary
18.038	How many homicides will there be in London in 2019?	Continuous
17.554	How many seats will the Labour and Co-operative Parties win in the next UK general election?	Continuous
17.509	Will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK is still in the EU on 30 March 2019?	Binary
16.648	How many seats will the Conservative and Unionist Party win in the next UK general election?	Continuous
16.204	Will any piece of art be sold for more than $450.3 million in 2019?	Binary
16.149	Will the Liberal Party of Canada win the most seats in the next Canadian general election?	Binary
15.439	Will Tesla have a higher market capitalization than Ford on 01 January 2020?	Binary
14.869	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?	Binary
14.850	Will Oman be removed from the EU list of non-cooperative tax jurisdictions between 20 June 2019 and 31 October 2019?	Binary
14.134	What will be the best sales rank number in 2019 for the book Cosmological Koans?	Continuous
14.077	Before 30 November 2019, will it be announced that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement negotiations have concluded?	Binary
14.054	Will the S&P 500 end 2019 higher?	Binary
12.831	Between 23 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, will the Spanish monarch appoint a President of the Government?	Binary
12.223	Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019?	Binary
12.087	Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives?	Binary
10.059	Before 30 November 2019, will Germany's Bundestag adopt a bill that would impose a fine on parents who refuse a measles vaccine for their children?	Binary
7.345	Will Nabil Karoui win the popular vote on the first round of the September 2019 Tunisian Election?	Binary
7.273	When will Jeremy Corbyn cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
5.978	Will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters in France decline?	Binary
5.528	Will either the Japanese or Norwegian government blame Iran for the June 2019 Gulf of Oman incident?	Binary
5.221	Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?	Binary
5.161	Will Carnegie Mellon be the top university accepted to NeurIPS 2019?	Binary
5.070	Will the US government shut down on February 16th?	Binary
4.566	Will the next UK Parliamentary election held for the seat of Peterborough be won by the Conservative and Unionist Party Candidate?	Binary
2.255	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted?	Binary
1.480	Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?	Binary
1.234	How many civilians will be killed in Syria in September 2019, according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR)?	Continuous
1.234	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019?	Binary
0.302	What will be the IMDB score of The Expanse Season 4 one week after it has been aired?	Continuous
-	By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players?	Binary
-2.024	Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine?	Binary
-2.879	Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 2020?	Binary
-4.514	Will Brexit happen by end of day, October 31st, 2019?	Binary
-4.541	How much will Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker make in its opening weekend?	Continuous
-8.453	Will PewDiePie be the first YouTuber to have 100M subscribers?	Binary
-9.748	Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019?	Binary
-11.373	Best Penn Treebank perplexity of 2019?	Continuous
-11.558	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019	Binary
-12.437	Attempted crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner flight prior to 2020?	Binary
-13.957	Will the SAIDA Starcraft bot win the Student Starcraft AI Tournament?	Binary
-14.496	Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000?	Binary
-14.665	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019?	Binary
-19.696	Will the International Crisis Group report a deteriorated situation for Iran in July 2019?	Binary
-30.061	How much will be pledged on the Metaculus Patreon on its halfaversary?	Continuous
-86.229	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019?	Binary