gdcs3

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

945.6	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
78.999	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
74.417	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
71.371	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
70.739	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
67.268	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
65.232	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
57.279	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
54.319	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
53.261	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
47.237	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
43.267	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
38.744	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
37.903	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
35.616	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
33.560	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
32.985	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
32.697	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
31.802	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
29.738	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
29.299	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
29.009	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
24.705	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
24.381	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
22.858	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
21.215	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
20.421	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
19.811	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
19.473	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
17.390	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
17.297	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
17.038	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
14.024	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
12.578	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
12.158	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
10.435	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
10.003	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
8.774	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
8.649	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
8.538	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
8.178	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
6.946	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
5.384	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
5.295	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
5.041	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
4.956	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
4.626	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
4.588	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
4.522	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
4.111	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
4.003	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
3.727	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
3.433	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
3.149	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
2.732	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
1.866	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
1.860	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
1.501	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
0.833	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
-0.989	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-4.858	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-10.429	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
-12.802	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-23.662	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-25.208	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
-42.740	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-50.876	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-71.599	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-192.428	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous