95.227 | Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020? | Binary |
91.007 | Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020? | Binary |
89.642 | Will Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found in 2019? | Binary |
83.166 | Will Algeria hold Presidential Election in 2019? | Binary |
81.990 | How many MPs will the "Independent Group" have after the next UK general election? | Continuous |
77.530 | Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020? | Binary |
70.913 | Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania? | Binary |
68.759 | Will Czech Republic's Prime Minister Andrej Babiš experience a significant leadership disruption between 20 June 2019 and 22 August 2019? | Binary |
67.287 | If the UK participates in the European Parliament elections in 2019, what percentage of the popular vote will the Brexit Party win? | Continuous |
67.133 | Will any piece of art be sold for more than $450.3 million in 2019? | Binary |
65.306 | Will the current Dutch cabinet keep a majority in the Dutch senate after the election on May 27 2019? | Binary |
62.942 | Will Mitt Romney challenge Donald Trump in the Republican Primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election? | Binary |
61.830 | Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th? | Binary |
61.192 | How many seats will the People's Party of Canada win in the next Canadian election? | Continuous |
59.241 | Will Oman be removed from the EU list of non-cooperative tax jurisdictions between 20 June 2019 and 31 October 2019? | Binary |
57.525 | How many homicides will there be in London in 2019? | Continuous |
54.931 | Will Tesla have a higher market capitalization than Ford on 01 January 2020? | Binary |
54.059 | Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019? | Binary |
53.477 | Before 30 November 2019, will Germany's Bundestag adopt a bill that would impose a fine on parents who refuse a measles vaccine for their children? | Binary |
53.085 | Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Are SSRIs Self-Rated More Effective for Depression Than Anxiety? | Binary |
52.869 | How many civilians will be killed in Syria in September 2019, according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR)? | Continuous |
52.370 | What will be the IMDB score of The Expanse Season 4 one week after it has been aired? | Continuous |
47.909 | Will an EU country veto an extension of Brexit's deliberation before Oct 31st 2019? | Binary |
46.883 | Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500? | Binary |
46.363 | How much will be pledged on the Metaculus Patreon on its halfaversary? | Continuous |
44.761 | What will be the best sales rank number in 2019 for the book Cosmological Koans? | Continuous |
44.370 | Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019? | Binary |
43.470 | Will OpenAI Five win against the reigning Dota 2 world champions OG? | Binary |
43.112 | Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Less support for psychiatric commitment among the committed? | Binary |
42.681 | Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial become known in 2019? | Binary |
41.924 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018 | Binary |
41.795 | Will Brexit happen by end of day, October 31st, 2019? | Binary |
41.374 | Will the UK revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020? | Binary |
40.778 | Will Joe Biden run for President in 2020? | Binary |
38.815 | Falcon Heavy booster landing redux: How many boosters will Falcon Heavy Flight 2 land successfully? | Continuous |
38.714 | Will US troops intervene in Venezuela? | Binary |
35.889 | Will Elon Musk still be CEO of Tesla on January 1, 2020? | Binary |
35.572 | What percentage of the Mueller report will be unredacted in its initial release by Barr's Department of Justice? | Continuous |
34.574 | Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 2020? | Binary |
29.980 | Will the Liberal Party of Canada win the most seats in the next Canadian general election? | Binary |
27.684 | Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives? | Binary |
27.364 | Will the International Crisis Group report a deteriorated situation for Iran in July 2019? | Binary |
26.238 | Will the S&P 500 end 2019 higher? | Binary |
26.218 | Will Carnegie Mellon be the top university accepted to NeurIPS 2019? | Binary |
25.251 | If Donald J. Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, how many articles of impeachment will be brought to the U.S. Senate? | Continuous |
23.130 | Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019? | Binary |
21.545 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted? | Binary |
13.242 | Will the US government shut down on February 16th? | Binary |
12.918 | Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000? | Binary |
11.316 | British Pound / Euro parity before January 1st, 2020? | Binary |
10.632 | Will the next UK Parliamentary election held for the seat of Peterborough be won by the Conservative and Unionist Party Candidate? | Binary |
10.468 | When will Jeremy Corbyn cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | Continuous |
3.469 | Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019? | Binary |
0.369 | When will Astralis stop being the number one ranked CS:GO team? | Continuous |
-0.085 | Will PewDiePie be the first YouTuber to have 100M subscribers? | Binary |
-7.576 | Will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters in France decline? | Binary |
-9.020 | Will either the Japanese or Norwegian government blame Iran for the June 2019 Gulf of Oman incident? | Binary |
-14.418 | [Short Fuse] Will no Prime Minister of Italy be named in August 2019? | Binary |
-15.046 | Attempted crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner flight prior to 2020? | Binary |
-18.223 | Between 23 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, will the Spanish monarch appoint a President of the Government? | Binary |
-23.780 | Will Election Betting Odds report a >60% chance of a Trump 2020 presidential election victory by November 30, 2019? | Binary |
-28.983 | Will the SAIDA Starcraft bot win the Student Starcraft AI Tournament? | Binary |
-41.106 | Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019? | Binary |
-57.264 | Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Do Upper-Class Kids Later Attribute Success to Merit? | Binary |
-57.553 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019 | Binary |
-61.298 | Will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK is still in the EU on 30 March 2019? | Binary |
-72.704 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019? | Binary |
-209.556 | Best Penn Treebank perplexity of 2019? | Continuous |
-230.348 | Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine? | Binary |
-268.926 | Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019? | Binary |