james.jj.barry

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.77k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
82.228	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
79.867	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
73.296	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
72.630	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
67.358	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
60.183	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
59.799	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
58.722	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
57.885	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
56.570	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
55.032	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
54.706	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
52.999	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
52.747	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
50.722	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
50.278	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
50.033	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
48.135	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
45.739	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
44.699	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
44.461	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
44.260	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
41.059	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
40.593	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
40.538	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
40.497	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]	Continuous
38.212	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
37.795	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
37.244	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
33.881	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
33.678	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
32.816	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
30.787	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
30.322	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
26.546	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
24.515	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
24.468	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
21.902	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
20.077	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
19.367	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [1-8B range]	Continuous
18.401	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
17.581	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
16.076	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
15.091	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
14.032	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
13.635	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
13.544	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
12.885	If the total estimated number of novel coronavirus cases before 2021 exceeds 100 million, how many people will die before January 1, 2021?	Continuous
12.713	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
11.679	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
10.946	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
8.097	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
7.977	When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?	Continuous
3.991	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
3.757	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
2.124	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
1.948	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
1.671	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
0.180	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
0.154	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
-0.458	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-1.287	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
-1.940	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-2.396	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
-7.651	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
-8.811	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-9.804	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
-12.504	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
-13.959	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-22.825	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
-37.210	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?	Binary
-133.886	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous