elifland

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5524	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
152.241	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
128.718	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
120.513	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
120.212	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
119.522	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
107.166	When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?	Continuous
99.015	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
95.809	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
94.691	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
94.458	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
89.974	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
89.695	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
86.960	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
85.367	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
84.261	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	Binary
84.102	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
83.172	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
83.046	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
82.981	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
81.594	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
81.136	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
80.920	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
80.337	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
79.373	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
77.340	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
76.546	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
76.541	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
74.941	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
74.242	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
72.299	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
71.241	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
70.645	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
67.393	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
66.933	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
66.641	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
65.645	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
63.410	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
62.495	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
61.652	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
61.401	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
61.196	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
61.066	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
60.681	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
59.092	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
58.889	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
57.356	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
56.861	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
55.750	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
54.923	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
54.257	What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates? (December 14, 2024)	Continuous
54.091	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
53.092	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
53.012	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
52.987	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
52.569	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
51.741	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
51.460	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
51.210	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
50.642	What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?	Continuous
50.402	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
49.475	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
49.400	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
49.030	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
48.347	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
48.201	Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?	Binary
48.101	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
47.502	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
47.366	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
46.783	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
46.174	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
45.045	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
44.307	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
43.875	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
43.777	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
43.289	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
43.121	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
43.094	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
42.892	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
41.823	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
41.156	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
40.588	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
40.212	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
39.359	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
37.895	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
37.864	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
37.529	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
37.104	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
36.802	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
36.156	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
35.922	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
35.248	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
34.564	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
34.349	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
33.372	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
31.798	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
31.755	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
31.055	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
30.560	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
28.661	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
27.968	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
27.764	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
27.612	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
27.326	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
26.979	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
26.843	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
26.274	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
26.094	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
22.543	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
21.838	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
21.817	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
21.167	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
21.135	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
20.253	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
20.239	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
19.036	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
18.346	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
18.150	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
18.125	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
17.814	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
17.214	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
17.206	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
17.075	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
16.722	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
16.656	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
16.521	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
15.515	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
15.215	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
14.505	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
13.905	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
13.250	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
13.105	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
12.727	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
12.448	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
11.796	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
11.727	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
11.594	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
11.543	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
10.393	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
9.064	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
8.467	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
8.263	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
7.986	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
7.387	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
7.159	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
6.469	How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?	Continuous
6.143	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
5.927	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
5.702	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
5.385	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
5.191	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
4.440	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
4.131	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
3.601	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
3.591	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
3.393	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
3.067	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
2.328	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
2.054	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
1.388	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
1.172	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
0.507	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
0.494	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
0.190	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
0.156	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
0.000	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-0.774	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-1.007	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-1.213	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
-2.098	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
-3.132	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-5.715	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
-9.194	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
-9.198	At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?	Binary
-10.468	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
-11.120	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-14.035	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
-15.280	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-22.785	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
-36.823	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
-38.907	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-42.444	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-65.555	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
-71.156	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
-78.554	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
-81.925	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-97.587	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-120.256	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-124.816	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	Binary
-125.604	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-174.945	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous
-251.345	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary