JonathanShi

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2566	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
150.894	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
98.706	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
96.924	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
95.824	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
92.462	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
90.182	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
84.260	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	Binary
83.025	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
81.843	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
79.688	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
77.579	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
76.210	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
76.198	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
75.585	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
70.925	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
69.399	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
69.127	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
64.024	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
63.459	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
59.748	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
59.133	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
58.046	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
57.975	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
56.292	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
56.273	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
55.321	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
54.800	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
53.964	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
53.880	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
53.733	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
53.039	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
50.996	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
50.054	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
49.900	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
49.135	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
42.107	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
41.419	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
41.337	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
40.946	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
39.472	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
39.138	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
36.829	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
36.168	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
35.231	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
35.109	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
33.857	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
32.743	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
32.272	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
31.133	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
29.206	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
28.839	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
28.670	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
26.300	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
25.147	How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?	Continuous
24.915	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
24.720	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
23.089	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
22.585	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
22.481	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
22.418	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
19.993	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
19.714	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
19.234	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
19.011	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
18.270	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
18.201	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
18.129	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
15.792	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
15.687	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
15.193	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
14.280	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
13.614	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
12.792	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
12.557	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
12.131	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
11.118	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
10.802	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
10.718	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
10.500	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
10.419	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
9.707	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
9.555	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
9.525	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
9.221	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
8.984	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
7.319	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
6.097	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
5.888	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
5.134	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
4.135	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
2.876	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
2.785	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
2.574	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
2.559	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
2.493	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
2.435	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
2.248	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
2.150	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
2.138	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
2.037	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
1.808	What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?	Continuous
1.309	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
0.737	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
0.538	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
0.280	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
0.265	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
0.184	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
0.136	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
0.078	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
0.067	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
0.054	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
-0.104	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
-0.621	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-2.083	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-5.002	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-5.629	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-9.163	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
-9.282	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
-11.394	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
-12.249	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
-14.110	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
-18.300	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
-19.222	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
-20.947	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
-22.955	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-33.138	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-35.642	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-36.483	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
-36.824	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-63.772	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-78.688	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-87.608	At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?	Binary
-130.927	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-144.984	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-148.575	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous
-154.103	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous