isaacdunn

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

2136	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
153.194	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
118.288	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
110.095	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
89.530	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
81.612	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
77.673	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
76.568	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
75.958	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
75.555	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
75.268	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
73.379	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
69.592	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
68.806	Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?	Binary
68.452	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
66.381	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
65.693	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
64.111	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
63.459	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
63.408	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
62.018	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
59.201	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
58.884	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
58.478	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
58.226	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
57.941	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
57.450	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
55.862	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
53.865	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
53.195	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
51.942	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
51.262	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
51.115	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
50.890	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
50.473	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
50.276	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
49.347	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
49.322	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
48.494	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
46.566	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
45.138	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
43.238	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
42.869	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
41.957	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
41.801	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
41.584	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
40.054	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
38.789	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
38.770	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
36.923	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
36.659	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
36.490	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
34.398	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
33.999	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
33.107	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
33.062	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
32.371	When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?	Continuous
31.471	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
31.137	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
29.095	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
26.956	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
24.450	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
24.142	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
23.723	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
23.537	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
23.047	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
16.297	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
16.047	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
14.697	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
14.677	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
14.495	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
13.807	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
13.576	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
13.155	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
12.969	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
11.716	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
11.691	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
11.089	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
9.182	What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates? (December 14, 2024)	Continuous
8.321	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
7.409	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
6.968	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
6.863	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
5.841	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
5.552	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
5.498	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
5.196	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
5.149	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
4.946	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
4.807	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
4.521	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
4.161	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
4.128	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
4.087	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
3.096	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
2.897	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
2.037	What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?	Continuous
1.892	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
1.621	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
1.479	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
1.342	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
0.940	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
0.911	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
0.709	How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?	Continuous
-0.035	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
-0.461	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous
-0.535	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
-0.569	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-1.085	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
-2.949	Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?	Binary
-3.094	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
-4.038	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-4.300	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
-7.469	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-7.549	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
-7.829	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-7.952	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
-8.784	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-12.012	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
-13.429	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-19.583	Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?	Binary
-22.621	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
-23.123	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
-23.962	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
-24.310	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
-38.079	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
-39.027	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-50.177	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
-63.694	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
-67.135	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
-75.648	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
-80.604	At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?	Binary
-100.125	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-110.356	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
-124.061	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-148.281	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-215.758	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-329.647	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary