95.626 | Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021? | Binary |
95.373 | Will the US see mass price controls in 2021? | Binary |
91.192 | Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21? | Binary |
84.213 | Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars? | Binary |
80.841 | Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? | Binary |
80.638 | Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021? | Binary |
73.783 | Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021? | Binary |
69.405 | Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021? | Binary |
51.544 | Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? | Binary |
51.350 | How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be? | Continuous |
46.573 | Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom? | Binary |
35.498 | Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021? | Binary |
31.563 | Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets? | Binary |
29.519 | Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person? | Binary |
28.938 | When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? | Continuous |
21.756 | Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021? | Binary |
16.272 | Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive? | Binary |
12.984 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States? | Continuous |
11.916 | When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people? | Continuous |
11.016 | Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? | Binary |
6.904 | Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day? | Binary |
5.091 | When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? | Continuous |
4.087 | Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself? | Binary |
0.014 | Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics? | Binary |
0.002 | Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021? | Binary |
- | Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges? | Binary |
- | Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022? | Binary |
- | Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021? | Binary |
-4.252 | Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family? | Binary |
-17.841 | When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020? | Continuous |
-47.148 | Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference? | Binary |
-54.591 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s? | Binary |