krtnu

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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1939	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
147.088	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
145.100	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
141.229	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
136.231	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
134.326	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
97.097	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
95.406	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
95.126	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
92.478	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
91.918	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
87.125	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
86.980	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
84.494	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
84.453	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
84.256	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
83.660	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
79.465	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
77.383	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
76.517	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
76.366	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
75.934	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
74.509	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
73.354	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
72.677	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
72.026	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
71.255	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
67.543	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
64.366	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
62.536	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
61.417	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
61.005	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
59.997	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
59.910	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
59.418	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
58.896	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
58.407	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
58.298	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
58.157	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
57.518	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
57.213	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
56.788	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
55.505	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
54.085	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
53.781	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
52.298	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
49.098	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
48.537	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
48.064	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
47.862	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
47.290	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
46.062	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
45.698	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
44.782	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
43.234	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
43.207	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
42.270	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
41.962	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
41.083	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
40.112	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
39.634	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
39.231	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
38.974	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
38.329	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
38.025	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
37.303	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
36.546	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
36.411	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
35.835	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
35.534	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
35.285	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
34.822	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
34.195	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
33.854	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
31.488	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
29.499	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
27.635	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
27.232	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
27.001	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
26.981	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
26.288	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
26.223	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
26.005	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
25.420	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
25.357	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
25.336	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
24.009	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
23.819	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
21.106	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
21.031	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
20.561	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
20.531	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
17.590	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
17.442	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
17.367	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
16.321	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
16.298	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
15.531	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
15.263	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
14.696	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
13.083	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
13.002	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
12.795	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
12.780	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
12.494	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
11.909	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
11.303	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
11.249	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
11.094	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
10.960	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
9.345	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
9.147	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
8.465	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
7.348	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
7.326	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
7.282	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
6.764	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
5.619	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
5.521	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
4.742	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
4.440	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
3.840	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
3.755	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
2.852	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
1.823	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
0.641	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
0.554	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
0.435	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-	Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?	Binary
-	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
-1.624	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-1.923	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-2.913	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
-3.926	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
-4.675	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-7.931	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
-8.461	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
-10.177	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-11.058	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
-11.065	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
-12.281	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-14.257	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-18.660	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
-18.954	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
-27.443	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-31.182	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	Binary
-31.862	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
-32.270	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
-45.235	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
-49.842	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
-59.130	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
-62.909	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-72.855	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-80.913	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-90.619	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
-105.006	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-153.625	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
-157.244	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
-176.024	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
-185.632	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous
-192.235	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-198.629	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-214.817	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-218.153	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
-223.292	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-228.340	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-230.505	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
-231.851	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
-326.700	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary