84.836 | What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? | Continuous |
83.388 | Will Trump freely leave the White House? | Binary |
75.924 | Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21? | Binary |
75.082 | Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021? | Binary |
71.937 | Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021? | Binary |
61.022 | Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? | Binary |
60.720 | What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021? | Continuous |
43.115 | What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021? | Continuous |
41.493 | What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021? | Continuous |
40.841 | Will the US see mass price controls in 2021? | Binary |
38.519 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021? | Continuous |
38.425 | Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021? | Binary |
37.926 | What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza? | Continuous |
32.840 | Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021? | Binary |
30.029 | Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person? | Binary |
26.498 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021? | Continuous |
19.128 | How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021? | Continuous |
17.376 | How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022? | Continuous |
16.901 | Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? | Binary |
16.598 | What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021? | Continuous |
15.748 | What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election? | Continuous |
13.228 | Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day? | Binary |
13.079 | Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? | Binary |
12.457 | What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021? | Continuous |
7.724 | When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement? | Continuous |
4.718 | When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? | Continuous |
4.168 | Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021? | Binary |
2.283 | What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee? | Continuous |
0.623 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s? | Binary |
-2.097 | When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? | Continuous |
-6.226 | Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself? | Binary |
-10.233 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? | Continuous |
-14.284 | Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? | Binary |
-14.988 | Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family? | Binary |
-27.821 | Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election? | Binary |
-30.250 | Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021? | Binary |
-48.346 | Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA? | Binary |
-70.106 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022? | Binary |
-108.426 | When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area? | Continuous |
-124.094 | Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference? | Binary |