pseudo

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

950.3	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
214.603	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
128.428	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
89.119	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
76.148	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
75.468	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
73.683	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
69.587	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
67.132	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
62.964	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
53.466	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
47.248	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
42.615	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
40.766	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
39.329	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
39.212	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
38.703	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
30.168	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
27.326	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
26.519	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
26.236	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
26.091	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
24.441	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
21.855	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
21.554	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
21.008	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
19.906	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
15.771	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
15.714	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
14.754	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
13.962	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
13.265	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
13.037	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
12.879	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
11.777	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
10.307	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
9.410	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
8.148	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
7.246	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
7.105	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
5.762	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
5.723	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
4.917	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
2.968	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
2.793	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
2.635	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
2.061	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
1.848	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
0.444	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
0.238	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
0.120	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
-0.610	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
-2.914	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-6.363	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
-6.910	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-12.109	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
-13.358	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
-25.248	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
-32.802	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
-50.527	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-52.208	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-66.620	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
-72.122	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
-81.114	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-104.585	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-108.699	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous