MaciekK

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.499k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
80.055	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
78.019	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
66.168	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
63.024	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
62.250	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
58.683	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
58.645	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
55.290	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
55.203	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
55.020	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
51.111	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
49.638	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
46.677	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
46.653	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
45.100	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
41.767	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
40.770	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
40.408	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
39.031	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
36.719	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
36.182	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
35.949	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
35.887	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
35.290	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
35.256	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
34.120	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
33.886	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
33.204	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
32.399	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
31.886	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
31.857	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
27.601	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
27.282	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
24.208	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
22.631	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
22.094	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
21.470	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
17.639	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
16.350	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
15.132	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
14.257	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
13.201	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
12.666	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
12.436	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
10.745	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
10.692	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
9.612	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
8.042	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
7.579	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
5.155	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
4.097	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
3.820	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
2.527	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
1.523	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
1.484	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
0.632	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
0.364	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
-0.754	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
-4.024	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
-6.600	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
-22.242	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-47.620	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-55.337	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-58.812	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
-65.120	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous