| 127.628 | On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public? | Continuous |
| 114.312 | When will Microsoft release Windows 12? | Continuous |
| 98.859 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Baidu) | Binary |
| 98.623 | Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 98.359 | Will Boeing file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 98.068 | Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026? | Binary |
| 97.842 | Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 96.851 | Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025? | Binary |
| 96.189 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 96.084 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Hugging Face) | Binary |
| 95.924 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Alibaba) | Binary |
| 95.845 | Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538? | Binary |
| 95.767 | Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 94.998 | Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026? | Binary |
| 94.147 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (xAI) | Binary |
| 94.139 | Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026? | Binary |
| 94.107 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Cohere) | Binary |
| 93.176 | Will the US eliminate the Department of Education through law or presidential reorganization before 2026? | Binary |
| 92.629 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (IBM) | Binary |
| 92.296 | Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026? | Binary |
| 92.213 | Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 92.006 | Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI? | Binary |
| 91.894 | Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models? (OpenAI / GPT-5) | Binary |
| 90.509 | Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025? | Binary |
| 89.183 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Mistral AI) | Binary |
| 88.293 | Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months? | Binary |
| 88.263 | Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026? | Binary |
| 87.833 | Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026? | Binary |
| 87.414 | Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 86.807 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Apple) | Binary |
| 85.815 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Perplexity AI) | Binary |
| 85.371 | Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 84.819 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? | Binary |
| 84.023 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 82.584 | Will bitcoin reach $200k in 2025? | Binary |
| 81.466 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025? | Binary |
| 81.152 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Aston Villa) | Binary |
| 80.638 | How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025? | Continuous |
| 80.494 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 79.919 | Will SpaceX re-use a Starship booster before October 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 79.332 | Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 79.046 | On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States? | Binary |
| 79.020 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? (No) → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 78.743 | Will Ukraine start revoking passports of military draft age men residing abroad before 2026? | Binary |
| 77.967 | Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models? (Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus) | Binary |
| 77.702 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 77.283 | Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026? | Binary |
| 76.539 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Continuous |
| 75.267 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 75.004 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Continuous |
| 74.183 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Meta) | Binary |
| 73.738 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Continuous |
| 73.066 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 72.767 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 71.754 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Continuous |
| 70.999 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Fulham) | Continuous |
| 70.038 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 69.483 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Lille OSC) | Binary |
| 69.472 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Club Brugge) | Binary |
| 69.409 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (PSV Eindhoven) | Binary |
| 69.042 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica) | Binary |
| 69.042 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 68.257 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024? | Binary |
| 67.227 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Atlético Madrid) | Binary |
| 67.001 | Will car crash deaths in the US be below 40,000 for 2024? | Binary |
| 66.522 | Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026? | Binary |
| 66.483 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Bayer Leverkusen) | Binary |
| 66.395 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Continuous |
| 65.799 | Will a bilateral ceasefire be announced in the Ukraine war, before April 19, 2025? | Binary |
| 65.609 | Will the S&P 500 Index increase over the year 2025? | Binary |
| 64.534 | How many pounds of chicken per capita will the US consume in 2025? | Continuous |
| 64.297 | Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026? | Binary |
| 63.469 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Leicester) | Continuous |
| 63.449 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 63.341 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Ipswich) | Continuous |
| 61.335 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Continuous |
| 61.194 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Stade Brest) | Binary |
| 61.160 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 61.120 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (AS Monaco) | Binary |
| 60.720 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Sporting Lisbon) | Binary |
| 60.219 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Juventus) | Binary |
| 59.542 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Atalanta) | Binary |
| 59.379 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 59.352 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Continuous |
| 57.709 | Will Nicolás Maduro be inaugurated for a new term in January 2025? | Binary |
| 57.511 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Everton) | Continuous |
| 57.276 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Southampton) | Continuous |
| 56.892 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Microsoft) | Binary |
| 55.806 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
| 55.705 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Continuous |
| 53.872 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Sturm Graz) | Binary |
| 53.852 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Sparta Praha) | Binary |
| 53.852 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| 53.852 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Dinamo Zagreb) | Binary |
| 53.852 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Slovan Bratislava) | Binary |
| 53.852 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Red Star Belgrade) | Binary |
| 53.818 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Bologna) | Binary |
| 53.818 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Girona) | Binary |
| 53.818 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (VfD Stuttgart) | Binary |
| 53.818 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg) | Binary |
| 53.778 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 53.535 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 53.529 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Brighton And Hove Albion) | Continuous |
| 53.378 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Brentford) | Continuous |
| 53.377 | Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2025) | Binary |
| 49.291 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
| 48.784 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be confirmed by the US Senate as Secretary of Health and Human Services before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 47.882 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
| 45.472 | Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 45.171 | On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone? (2025) | Continuous |
| 45.053 | How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025? | Continuous |
| 41.993 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Continuous |
| 41.022 | What Percentage of Democrats and Republicans will Vote-by-Mail in 2024? (% Republicans Voting-by-Mail) | Continuous |
| 40.466 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| 39.382 | What will be the nominal price of gas per gallon in the US on the following dates? (January 2026) | Continuous |
| 37.241 | In the following years, what will be the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark? (2025) | Continuous |
| 33.792 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
| 32.074 | Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (3,000) | Binary |
| 31.529 | How many measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2025? | Continuous |
| 28.955 | Will there be a global recession before 2026, according to the IMF? | Binary |
| 27.251 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 26.314 | Who will be elected President of Poland in 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 24.338 | Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 20.943 | When will OpenAI publicly release Sora, its text-to-video model? | Continuous |
| 20.409 | What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026? | Multiple Choice |
| 18.446 | When will GPT-5 be available to the general public? | Continuous |
| 16.638 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (C3.ai) | Binary |
| 16.638 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (AI21) | Binary |
| 16.108 | Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (100) | Binary |
| 14.987 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 14.848 | Will another US state ban lab-grown meat in 2025? | Binary |
| 7.470 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-25) | Continuous |
| 6.867 | What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (May 2025) | Continuous |
| 6.728 | When will SpaceX first successfully catch a Starship booster with the tower? | Continuous |
| 4.090 | Before January 1, 2026, will Israel formally lift its warnings against Palestinians returning to northern Gaza? | Binary |
| 3.638 | Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.299 | Before 2026, how many US states will pass legislation regulating deepfakes? | Continuous |
| -2.132 | Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024? | Binary |
| -5.021 | Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| -6.902 | What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2025) | Continuous |
| -10.504 | Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence? | Binary |
| -17.038 | What Percentage of Democrats and Republicans will Vote-by-Mail in 2024? (% Democrats Voting-by-Mail) | Continuous |
| -25.869 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Continuous |
| -28.410 | Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026? | Binary |
| -34.043 | Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025? | Binary |
| -45.045 | Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026? | Binary |
| -58.277 | Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025? | Binary |
| -66.849 | Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (1,000) | Binary |
| -119.230 | Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025? | Binary |
| -123.952 | Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025? | Binary |
| -140.691 | Will there be Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria within one year from October 28, 2024? | Binary |
| -146.771 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Amazon) | Binary |
| -160.883 | Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors? | Binary |
| -290.847 | Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2026? | Binary |
| -311.609 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |