lukas.baker

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2019

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

3.262	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
27.538	How many civilians will be killed in Syria in September 2019, according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR)?	Continuous
25.542	When will Astralis stop being the number one ranked CS:GO team?	Continuous
24.734	Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000?	Binary
22.869	Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019?	Binary
21.595	Will the International Crisis Group report a deteriorated situation for Iran in July 2019?	Binary
21.036	Will Election Betting Odds report a >60% chance of a Trump 2020 presidential election victory by November 30, 2019?	Binary
17.182	Will OpenAI Five win against the reigning Dota 2 world champions OG?	Binary
16.862	Will either the Japanese or Norwegian government blame Iran for the June 2019 Gulf of Oman incident?	Binary
16.219	Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019?	Binary
16.207	Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020?	Binary
16.131	Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019?	Binary
12.670	Will Joe Biden run for President in 2020?	Binary
9.497	Will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters in France decline?	Binary
9.436	How many seats will the Conservative and Unionist Party win in the next UK general election?	Continuous
9.108	Will Czech Republic's Prime Minister Andrej Babiš experience a significant leadership disruption between 20 June 2019 and 22 August 2019?	Binary
9.003	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in 2019?	Binary
7.775	Will Carnegie Mellon be the top university accepted to NeurIPS 2019?	Binary
7.767	How many seats will the Labour and Co-operative Parties win in the next UK general election?	Continuous
7.510	Will the US government shut down on February 16th?	Binary
6.172	What will be the best sales rank number in 2019 for the book Cosmological Koans?	Continuous
5.728	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019?	Binary
5.580	Will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK is still in the EU on 30 March 2019?	Binary
5.168	How much will be pledged on the Metaculus Patreon on its halfaversary?	Continuous
4.809	Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine?	Binary
4.778	Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500?	Binary
4.038	Will US troops intervene in Venezuela?	Binary
3.830	Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?	Binary
1.886	Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?	Binary
1.224	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted?	Binary
1.182	Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?	Binary
1.127	Will the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) have an IPO before 30 November 2019?	Binary
0.899	Will the UK revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020?	Binary
0.757	How many main characters will survive Game of Thrones?	Continuous
0.651	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018	Binary
0.643	[Short Fuse] Will more than 10% of flights departing from Hong Kong Intl. Airport be cancelled on the 16th of August 2019?	Binary
-0.217	Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial become known in 2019?	Binary
-0.782	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019	Binary
-1.412	Attempted crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner flight prior to 2020?	Binary
-5.954	British Pound / Euro parity before January 1st, 2020?	Binary
-12.693	Between 23 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, will the Spanish monarch appoint a President of the Government?	Binary
-16.185	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019?	Binary
-18.490	Will the Liberal Party of Canada win the most seats in the next Canadian general election?	Binary
-19.751	How much will Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker make in its opening weekend?	Continuous
-34.756	Will PewDiePie be the first YouTuber to have 100M subscribers?	Binary
-38.351	How many seats will the People's Party of Canada win in the next Canadian election?	Continuous
-48.506	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019?	Binary