isinlor

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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10.58		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
96.303	81.3%	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
91.520	82.0%	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
72.067	64.6%	Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?	Binary
61.013	92.3%	Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?	Binary
58.706	99.9%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
57.300	87.1%	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
52.475	100.0%	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
50.239	38.8%	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
44.243	70.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
42.321	98.5%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
40.188	68.7%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
36.006	75.9%	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
35.883	92.3%	What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates? (December 14, 2024)	Continuous
33.967	45.8%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
33.931	74.5%	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
31.962	99.8%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
31.337	98.5%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
31.143	52.8%	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
30.018	97.9%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
29.288	99.2%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
28.010	61.1%	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
27.836	67.8%	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
27.361	69.8%	When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?	Continuous
26.617	92.2%	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
26.376	86.7%	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
24.384	99.0%	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
23.683	100.0%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
22.530	30.2%	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
22.382	99.9%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
21.476	95.3%	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
21.346	99.0%	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
20.321	96.3%	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
18.034	89.1%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
17.962	99.5%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
17.821	99.2%	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
15.246	98.8%	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
14.896	27.3%	When will the first exaflop performer appear?	Continuous
14.471	70.4%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
13.943	99.6%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
13.716	81.6%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
13.021	77.1%	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
12.811	77.3%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
12.553	53.8%	When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?	Continuous
11.987	92.0%	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
11.867	95.8%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
11.502	99.9%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
11.407	99.6%	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
11.185	28.2%	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
10.896	51.3%	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
10.411	60.1%	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
10.387	70.2%	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
10.198	99.9%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.509	70.3%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
9.446	99.8%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
8.941	87.9%	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
8.775	95.8%	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
8.648	99.3%	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
8.603	83.5%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
8.331	100.0%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
8.312	98.9%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
8.138	99.8%	Will China launch an "artificial moon" by 2025?	Binary
8.076	99.6%	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
8.012	98.8%	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
7.810	89.2%	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
7.785	77.6%	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
7.527	86.7%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
7.525	90.7%	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
7.085	86.5%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
6.703	94.7%	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
6.420	23.3%	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous
6.030	90.0%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
5.506	98.8%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
5.257	98.6%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
5.076	30.8%	How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?	Continuous
4.958	99.2%	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
4.865	97.1%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
4.820	51.1%	Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?	Binary
4.627	70.8%	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
4.252	8.4%	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
3.850	99.9%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
3.532	99.5%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
3.523	48.4%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
3.349	99.1%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
2.820	27.4%	When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?	Continuous
2.770	98.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
2.653	95.9%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
2.643	90.3%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
2.506	99.6%	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
2.435	92.0%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
2.425	18.9%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
2.120	95.6%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
1.841	92.6%	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	Binary
1.749	2.5%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
1.360	88.5%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
1.260	35.4%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
1.213	8.3%	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
1.108	90.6%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
0.971	2.4%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
0.904	24.5%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
0.885	2.5%	Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?	Binary
0.733	70.5%	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
0.676	27.6%	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
0.614	74.9%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
0.442	9.7%	Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?	Binary
0.364	99.9%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
0.225	0.6%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
0.220	78.5%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
0.170	1.0%	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
0.161	3.3%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
0.124	78.9%	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
0.054	72.6%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
0.022	0.3%	How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?	Continuous
0.015	0.1%	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
0.007	0.1%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
0.005	0.0%	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
-0.005	1.9%	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
-0.081	1.6%	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
-0.137	9.3%	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-0.178	56.6%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
-0.238	2.2%	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
-0.242	1.5%	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
-0.264	100.0%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
-0.626	99.3%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
-0.701	2.7%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
-0.839	99.9%	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
-1.231	6.3%	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
-1.244	97.5%	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
-2.128	14.2%	What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?	Continuous
-2.357	99.2%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-2.614	98.9%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-2.926	99.3%	By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?	Binary
-2.996	100.0%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
-3.019	49.5%	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
-3.036	92.8%	Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?	Binary
-3.238	99.9%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
-3.348	100.0%	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
-3.504	82.0%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
-3.787	96.6%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
-3.876	77.3%	When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?	Continuous
-4.213	99.7%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
-4.602	79.8%	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
-4.708	100.0%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
-5.230	83.7%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
-5.365	99.7%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
-5.964	99.6%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
-6.288	99.2%	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
-6.499	99.3%	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
-6.630	97.1%	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-6.813	98.6%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
-7.499	99.8%	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
-7.872	82.0%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
-8.746	87.9%	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
-8.964	99.9%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
-9.152	82.1%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
-9.947	99.5%	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
-10.045	87.4%	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
-10.323	78.0%	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
-10.724	92.0%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
-11.166	87.8%	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
-12.203	81.2%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
-12.321	99.9%	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
-12.395	97.1%	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-12.512	82.0%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
-12.578	99.9%	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
-13.299	99.8%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
-13.405	95.3%	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
-13.998	89.3%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
-14.821	81.1%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
-15.304	97.1%	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-15.308	75.8%	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
-18.070	99.8%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
-18.661	95.8%	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
-18.802	69.6%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous