darkives

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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45.12		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
149.680	82.7%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
144.416	88.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
130.101	84.1%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
120.119	82.2%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
111.902	83.0%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
107.046	84.4%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
103.229	79.1%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
101.457	89.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
100.123	99.3%	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
90.617	96.8%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
90.568	96.2%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
88.045	99.2%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
85.970	88.3%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
85.015	80.0%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
82.943	89.7%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
78.782	97.7%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
76.873	99.4%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
75.169	95.3%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
69.975	89.5%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
68.559	89.5%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
67.469	87.2%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
63.637	78.5%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
61.994	87.8%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
61.482	97.5%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
59.072	94.1%	Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?	Binary
57.075	99.1%	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
54.708	93.1%	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45Q carbon capture tax credit established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
53.273	92.1%	What will happen to the adders to tax credits established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, before 2026?	Multiple Choice
50.931	94.2%	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
50.355	92.2%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
49.896	94.6%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
47.822	97.5%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
46.832	88.0%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
46.484	85.1%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
43.553	99.4%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
39.899	99.5%	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
39.473	98.0%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
39.145	77.8%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
38.537	88.3%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
36.779	88.8%	How will Bright Line Watch experts rate US democracy on a 0-100 scale at the end of the following years? (2025)	Continuous
36.129	99.4%	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
35.384	86.0%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
34.762	99.4%	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
33.574	85.8%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
33.114	89.5%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
32.887	84.7%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
32.399	99.1%	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
31.992	43.8%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
31.216	48.4%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
30.051	87.3%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
29.662	93.9%	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?	Binary
29.357	99.6%	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
29.221	94.6%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
29.126	85.5%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
27.131	99.2%	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
27.111	99.1%	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
26.998	79.1%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
26.686	94.4%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Capped credits)	Binary
26.552	99.3%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
25.508	97.6%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
22.618	93.5%	In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?	Binary
22.424	99.4%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
20.021	28.2%	When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?	Multiple Choice
19.466	68.9%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
19.330	99.5%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
14.341	86.9%	Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?	Binary
13.473	98.4%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
12.806	96.3%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
12.221	69.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
10.323	98.7%	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before March 2026?	Binary
10.119	94.4%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Limits on share buybacks)	Binary
9.427	27.2%	Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)?	Binary
9.048	96.8%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
8.284	10.0%	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
7.818	26.5%	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
6.842	11.1%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
6.776	42.9%	Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a "Current Policy" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?	Binary
4.692	26.5%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion)	Binary
4.410	97.0%	Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?	Binary
2.434	86.6%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
1.979	9.7%	Will a suspected shooter in the assassination of political activist Charlie Kirk be neutralized before September 19, 2025?	Binary
0.342	99.3%	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
-2.034	41.7%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill decrease total Medicaid spending from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
-2.183	13.2%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-8.318	26.2%	In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?	Binary
-9.777	97.6%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
-10.808	82.6%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-10.878	29.0%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-13.950	84.3%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-20.989	26.6%	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45V (hydrogen) tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
-21.123	45.6%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-23.377	93.6%	What will be the percentage increase for the minimum wage in Colombia for 2026?	Continuous
-41.704	94.7%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
-52.936	95.3%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
-127.116	63.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary
-141.429	92.9%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous