AABoyles

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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11.24		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
67.746	99.8%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
64.014	100.0%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
57.456	98.3%	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
50.023	99.8%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
48.823	94.8%	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
43.095	95.4%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
37.690	96.0%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
37.183	81.7%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
31.124	99.1%	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
29.916	64.6%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
29.844	99.9%	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
27.379	99.7%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
26.960	99.4%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
23.125	99.6%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
21.482	55.0%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
19.473	99.8%	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
18.344	35.6%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
18.326	82.8%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.883	47.7%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
14.883	72.8%	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
14.531	98.1%	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
13.827	96.5%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
13.138	90.9%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
12.590	22.8%	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
11.887	65.1%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
10.069	28.0%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
9.946	77.1%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
9.209	80.1%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
8.844	8.1%	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
8.399	88.7%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
8.246	32.4%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
8.192	10.4%	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
7.956	83.8%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
7.678	55.0%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
7.439	86.0%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
6.761	99.6%	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
6.620	56.0%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
6.088	25.4%	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
5.968	78.1%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
5.733	64.5%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
5.557	64.6%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
5.353	67.5%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
5.311	28.8%	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
5.000	76.4%	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
4.970	21.6%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
4.264	97.8%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
4.217	98.2%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
4.078	6.7%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
3.496	60.1%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
3.438	6.8%	Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?	Binary
2.824	3.2%	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
2.631	20.8%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
2.211	10.9%	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
2.181	2.8%	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
2.012	7.9%	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
1.977	2.0%	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
1.931	9.4%	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
1.747	4.5%	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
1.528	12.1%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
1.503	99.9%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
1.418	5.2%	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
1.417	3.3%	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
1.239	98.5%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
0.678	0.9%	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
0.509	8.4%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
0.496	90.7%	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
0.429	17.3%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
0.381	1.0%	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
0.345	9.4%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
0.274	17.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
0.165	17.9%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
0.143	8.7%	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
0.107	11.6%	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
0.072	1.1%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
0.064	0.4%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
0.057	0.3%	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
0.047	0.1%	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
0.034	0.3%	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
0.034	0.3%	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
0.029	0.7%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
0.021	0.0%	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
0.016	0.3%	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
0.012	0.1%	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
0.006	0.0%	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
0.001	0.3%	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
-0.004	3.8%	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
-0.028	0.3%	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
-0.056	0.1%	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
-0.071	0.3%	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
-0.072	66.1%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-0.932	97.8%	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
-2.102	92.6%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
-2.648	98.7%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
-2.709	74.5%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
-8.233	85.6%	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
-9.685	99.8%	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
-10.676	85.8%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
-11.028	14.2%	How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?	Continuous
-12.394	96.5%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
-12.722	87.4%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
-15.264	56.5%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
-18.934	96.5%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
-62.118	99.7%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-65.456	93.6%	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
-107.661	99.3%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary