steven0461

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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14.51		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
123.359	99.5%	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
86.219	100.0%	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
79.755	99.8%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
74.933	99.5%	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
59.514	99.8%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
55.207	99.9%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
40.855	99.8%	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
40.558	91.6%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
39.406	99.7%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
37.919	37.6%	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
37.404	98.7%	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
37.107	59.0%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
36.793	100.0%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
36.479	100.0%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
35.327	93.9%	What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?	Continuous
33.103	99.3%	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
33.020	95.9%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
32.910	99.4%	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
32.621	95.8%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
32.220	24.7%	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
31.112	82.9%	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
30.432	99.8%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
30.173	81.0%	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
29.929	77.2%	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
29.499	67.8%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
29.495	72.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
28.021	99.6%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
25.886	98.9%	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
25.293	100.0%	What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?	Continuous
25.245	76.2%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
25.066	98.7%	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
24.594	97.0%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
24.278	99.9%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
23.623	99.6%	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
23.106	98.9%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
22.176	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
21.506	96.6%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
21.196	99.7%	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
21.058	49.7%	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
21.023	99.3%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
21.019	99.6%	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
20.864	93.6%	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
20.414	100.0%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
19.835	96.5%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
19.830	99.9%	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
19.363	24.7%	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
19.125	82.4%	How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?	Continuous
18.807	99.8%	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
17.842	99.9%	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
17.386	99.5%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
16.838	50.6%	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
16.778	96.3%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
16.745	77.7%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
15.937	33.7%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
15.819	99.4%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
15.784	100.0%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
15.741	97.2%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
14.919	38.8%	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
14.631	95.4%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
14.579	99.5%	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
14.077	99.0%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
13.891	97.6%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
13.865	99.5%	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
13.708	99.6%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
13.536	53.0%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
13.263	23.3%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
13.103	99.7%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
13.060	65.8%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
13.056	99.4%	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
12.550	86.6%	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
12.500	99.9%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
12.339	96.8%	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
10.915	100.0%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
10.840	58.9%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
9.951	99.8%	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
9.919	99.2%	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
9.899	77.3%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
9.464	20.9%	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
9.135	99.3%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
8.822	89.1%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
8.785	24.1%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
8.632	98.1%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
8.552	98.2%	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
8.162	99.3%	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
8.138	91.1%	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
7.956	91.4%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
7.956	93.9%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
7.485	68.0%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
7.441	70.3%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
7.279	40.4%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
7.172	99.9%	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
7.133	99.7%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
6.916	97.5%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
6.877	99.7%	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
6.797	33.3%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
6.714	98.8%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
6.652	63.0%	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
6.555	97.9%	What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates? (December 14, 2024)	Continuous
6.338	51.8%	When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?	Continuous
5.979	99.9%	When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours?	Continuous
5.764	98.8%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
5.674	99.8%	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
5.349	100.0%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
5.108	99.9%	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
5.016	100.0%	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
4.976	98.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
4.438	48.7%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
4.393	43.2%	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
4.139	55.4%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
3.920	99.1%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
3.757	31.2%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
3.552	62.8%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
3.547	18.5%	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
3.542	99.9%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
3.339	99.0%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
3.196	17.2%	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
3.021	96.4%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
2.833	98.8%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
2.811	13.5%	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
2.693	40.7%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
2.661	35.7%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
2.623	100.0%	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
2.572	15.1%	Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?	Binary
2.359	99.9%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
2.359	96.7%	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
2.255	3.6%	When will the Apple car be unveiled?	Continuous
2.110	60.0%	Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?	Binary
2.076	72.1%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
1.960	85.1%	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
1.376	5.8%	How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?	Continuous
1.168	8.3%	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
1.158	3.2%	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
1.016	99.9%	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
0.807	8.8%	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
0.742	100.0%	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
0.380	43.2%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
0.282	3.0%	Will China launch an "artificial moon" by 2025?	Binary
0.236	99.9%	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
0.138	0.8%	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
0.120	95.9%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
0.116	6.7%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
0.100	0.8%	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
0.057	0.2%	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
0.027	18.2%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
0.009	0.3%	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
0.003	6.9%	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
-0.044	99.9%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
-0.147	96.5%	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
-0.198	24.0%	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
-0.209	98.8%	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-0.241	82.7%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
-0.411	84.9%	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
-0.454	99.2%	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
-0.535	97.7%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
-0.576	99.9%	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	Binary
-0.634	21.7%	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
-0.812	97.7%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
-0.889	97.7%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
-0.972	98.9%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
-1.134	99.4%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
-1.599	78.8%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
-1.951	9.3%	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-2.065	97.7%	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
-2.270	91.9%	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
-5.224	99.6%	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
-5.484	99.9%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
-5.646	99.8%	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
-6.217	99.9%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
-6.971	94.2%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
-7.689	52.5%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-8.000	97.7%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
-9.904	61.8%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
-10.929	93.0%	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
-15.419	100.0%	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	Continuous
-17.014	100.0%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
-18.055	99.9%	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
-21.473	99.9%	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
-26.792	98.5%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-28.923	99.6%	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
-29.918	99.8%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-57.683	99.9%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous