qassiov

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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43.47		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
136.593	100.0%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
130.437	99.8%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
113.412	99.7%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
112.338	99.8%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
108.613	99.8%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
106.619	99.9%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
93.354	82.6%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
92.606	94.8%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
78.153	99.4%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
76.477	99.6%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
70.778	99.4%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
68.447	49.0%	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
66.124	99.9%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
65.425	99.0%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
65.324	100.0%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
62.002	100.0%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
61.884	99.8%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
61.016	71.0%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
60.959	99.2%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
60.396	96.6%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
59.072	99.8%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
58.615	50.2%	Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?	Binary
58.603	76.5%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
58.533	98.3%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
57.564	99.2%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
55.570	70.6%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
55.345	51.8%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
47.896	77.6%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
46.291	99.5%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
45.501	99.7%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
44.307	75.7%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
42.359	99.1%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
38.501	83.5%	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
37.377	99.2%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
36.344	48.7%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
34.022	63.6%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
31.416	99.9%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
30.254	50.0%	Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?	Binary
29.926	99.6%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
28.645	99.6%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
28.121	70.0%	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
28.053	50.5%	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
26.421	99.8%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
25.622	62.8%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
23.986	83.5%	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
22.275	64.1%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
21.891	53.6%	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
21.339	59.7%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
21.139	50.0%	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
19.740	50.0%	Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?	Binary
17.694	50.0%	Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?	Binary
17.328	83.5%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
17.090	73.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
16.338	47.4%	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
16.207	50.0%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
15.863	50.9%	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
15.733	50.0%	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
15.317	51.7%	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
15.143	98.8%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
15.134	45.6%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
15.017	99.7%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
14.660	50.0%	Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?	Binary
14.401	98.5%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
13.659	50.0%	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
13.657	52.9%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
12.587	84.7%	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
12.475	99.4%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
12.469	18.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
11.970	50.0%	Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?	Binary
10.693	50.0%	Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?	Binary
9.765	16.3%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
9.528	49.0%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
9.273	84.7%	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
9.199	41.6%	Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
8.359	99.9%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
8.348	50.0%	Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
8.187	50.0%	Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?	Binary
8.120	20.2%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
7.966	24.5%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
6.587	50.0%	Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?	Binary
6.237	41.6%	Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
5.712	50.0%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
5.568	50.0%	Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?	Binary
4.702	50.0%	Will Spain's economy grow more than the Eurozone's between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025?	Binary
3.379	50.0%	Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	Binary
3.192	6.9%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
2.780	50.0%	Will Pedro Sánchez still be president of Spain at the end of 2025?	Binary
1.996	50.0%	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
1.952	50.0%	Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?	Binary
1.801	50.0%	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
1.262	2.3%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
0.518	8.7%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
0.347	51.8%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
0.090	99.4%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
-0.094	98.9%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
-0.546	83.3%	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
-1.481	25.5%	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
-3.359	52.2%	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
-21.856	69.8%	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
-48.651	99.4%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
-66.068	41.8%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-171.440	94.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary