| 77.815 | 35.8% | How many of Donald Trump's appointments to the cabinet will not be confirmed by the Senate? | Multiple Choice |
| 75.578 | 83.5% | Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025? | Binary |
| 75.300 | 98.9% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 71.665 | 75.8% | Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025? | Binary |
| 50.676 | 78.9% | Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors? | Binary |
| 47.410 | 80.3% | Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2025) | Binary |
| 41.048 | 56.6% | Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026? | Binary |
| 39.793 | 99.5% | Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025? | Binary |
| 31.984 | 80.5% | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Vietnam) | Binary |
| 30.069 | 86.0% | Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 29.639 | 76.1% | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Thailand) | Binary |
| 29.514 | 76.1% | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Sri Lanka) | Binary |
| 28.517 | 76.1% | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Mexico) | Binary |
| 27.768 | 82.9% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Meta) | Binary |
| 27.592 | 86.0% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Microsoft) | Binary |
| 26.029 | 76.1% | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 25.410 | 98.5% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? | Binary |
| 24.775 | 95.5% | Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026? | Binary |
| 24.288 | 59.3% | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Singapore) | Binary |
| 24.266 | 92.2% | Will the REAL ID deadline be extended beyond May 7, 2025? | Binary |
| 22.081 | 76.1% | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (India) | Binary |
| 20.388 | 64.8% | Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before 2026? | Binary |
| 19.461 | 69.2% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
| 18.885 | 86.0% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Alibaba) | Binary |
| 18.468 | 76.1% | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Indonesia) | Binary |
| 18.168 | 49.2% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Amazon) | Binary |
| 17.458 | 80.5% | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Taiwan) | Binary |
| 17.187 | 76.1% | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (The Philippines) | Binary |
| 16.827 | 84.3% | Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models? (OpenAI / GPT-5) | Binary |
| 16.383 | 59.3% | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Malaysia) | Binary |
| 16.292 | 63.3% | Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538? | Binary |
| 16.086 | 99.1% | Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025? | Binary |
| 15.671 | 80.7% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Apple) | Binary |
| 13.116 | 79.1% | Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026? | Binary |
| 13.053 | 90.3% | Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models? (Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus) | Binary |
| 12.051 | 93.8% | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026? | Binary |
| 11.633 | 37.1% | Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 11.348 | 40.0% | A porcentagem de veículos elétricos plug-in (BEV e PHEV) chegará a 5% do número total de vendas em 2025? | Binary |
| 10.985 | 88.1% | On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States? | Binary |
| 10.794 | 80.6% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Mistral AI) | Binary |
| 10.600 | 86.0% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (AI21) | Binary |
| 10.556 | 51.0% | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024? | Binary |
| 10.453 | 15.4% | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 9.794 | 86.0% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (xAI) | Binary |
| 9.559 | 99.4% | Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before 2026? | Binary |
| 9.311 | 92.8% | Will Ukraine start revoking passports of military draft age men residing abroad before 2026? | Binary |
| 8.977 | 14.8% | Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026? | Binary |
| 8.924 | 86.0% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Baidu) | Binary |
| 8.408 | 87.7% | Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026? | Binary |
| 8.250 | 80.4% | Will current use gifts to Harvard decrease for fiscal year 2025 relative to fiscal year 2023? | Binary |
| 7.987 | 47.2% | Will there be a global recession before 2026, according to the IMF? | Binary |
| 7.875 | 86.0% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Perplexity AI) | Binary |
| 7.820 | 20.4% | Which parties will form the governing coalition after the 2025 Germany Federal Elections? | Multiple Choice |
| 7.693 | 15.4% | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 7.290 | 15.4% | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 7.057 | 82.6% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Hugging Face) | Binary |
| 7.046 | 82.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| 6.958 | 90.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 6.956 | 81.9% | Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 6.937 | 74.5% | Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026? | Binary |
| 6.826 | 35.3% | Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI? | Binary |
| 6.725 | 15.4% | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 6.272 | 86.0% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Cohere) | Binary |
| 6.224 | 86.0% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (IBM) | Binary |
| 6.158 | 66.1% | Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 6.061 | 18.7% | Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026? | Binary |
| 5.997 | 86.0% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (C3.ai) | Binary |
| 5.920 | 12.7% | How many US states will have a kindergarten measles vaccination rate below 90% for the 2024-2025 school year? | Continuous |
| 5.793 | 15.6% | What proportion of tested influenza sequences will CDC report as influenza A during the 2024-25 season through the end of April 2025? | Continuous |
| 5.736 | 20.5% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Continuous |
| 5.544 | 98.0% | Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months? | Binary |
| 4.756 | 56.4% | Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 4.650 | 20.5% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
| 4.606 | 18.0% | Will Ju Wenjun win the Women's World Chess Championship 2025? | Binary |
| 4.572 | 86.0% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 4.572 | 86.0% | Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 4.498 | 15.4% | What will be the combined maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people relative to the maximum weekly rate of the peak disease in the 2024-25 season? | Continuous |
| 4.493 | 33.8% | Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 4.217 | 30.1% | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-25) | Continuous |
| 4.182 | 20.1% | Who will be the next chancellor of Germany after 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 3.984 | 84.5% | Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026? | Binary |
| 3.735 | 97.5% | Will the S&P 500 Index increase over the year 2025? | Binary |
| 3.690 | 31.6% | Who will be elected President of Poland in 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 3.628 | 15.4% | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 3.605 | 63.1% | Will antimicrobial drug sales for use in livestock production increase by at least 0.5% in 2024 relative to 2023? | Binary |
| 3.437 | 15.4% | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 3.397 | 48.7% | Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence? | Binary |
| 3.322 | 11.1% | Will a bilateral ceasefire be announced in the Ukraine war, before April 19, 2025? | Binary |
| 2.882 | 35.1% | Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases? | Binary |
| 2.749 | 19.8% | Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 2.722 | 15.6% | What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2024-2025 season? (H5) | Continuous |
| 2.673 | 98.9% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 2.332 | 5.4% | Who will win the 2025 election for President of Ecuador? | Multiple Choice |
| 2.050 | 46.3% | Will there be Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria within one year from October 28, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.926 | 90.0% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 1.902 | 61.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 1.806 | 15.6% | What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2024-2025 season? (H1N1) | Continuous |
| 1.799 | 16.1% | Will SpaceX re-use a Starship booster before October 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 1.758 | 20.5% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
| 1.406 | 11.9% | Will car crash deaths in the US be below 40,000 for 2024? | Binary |
| 1.118 | 15.4% | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 1.057 | 16.5% | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-25) | Continuous |
| 1.046 | 20.5% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Continuous |
| 1.018 | 7.3% | Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025? | Binary |
| 0.921 | 20.5% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Continuous |
| 0.847 | 0.7% | When will GPT-5 be available to the general public? | Continuous |
| 0.758 | 61.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 0.651 | 5.4% | Will the overall population in Sudan facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) decrease to under 20 million by February 2025? | Binary |
| 0.564 | 82.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 0.323 | 15.6% | What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2024-2025 season? (H3N2) | Continuous |
| 0.211 | 69.2% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Bayer Leverkusen) | Binary |
| 0.153 | 69.6% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Atlético Madrid) | Binary |
| 0.153 | 49.4% | Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025? | Binary |
| 0.099 | 61.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (AS Monaco) | Binary |
| 0.095 | 61.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Atalanta) | Binary |
| 0.095 | 82.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Aston Villa) | Binary |
| 0.057 | 20.5% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Continuous |
| 0.055 | 61.7% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Juventus) | Binary |
| 0.039 | 0.0% | How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2024-2025 season? | Continuous |
| -0.088 | 61.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Sporting Lisbon) | Binary |
| -0.118 | 61.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Stade Brest) | Binary |
| -0.125 | 54.0% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Girona) | Binary |
| -0.147 | 54.0% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (VfD Stuttgart) | Binary |
| -0.151 | 54.0% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Bologna) | Binary |
| -0.168 | 54.0% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Sparta Praha) | Binary |
| -0.175 | 54.0% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| -0.177 | 54.0% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Red Star Belgrade) | Binary |
| -0.179 | 54.0% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Slovan Bratislava) | Binary |
| -0.180 | 54.0% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Sturm Graz) | Binary |
| -0.181 | 54.0% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| -0.205 | 69.6% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (PSV Eindhoven) | Binary |
| -0.210 | 54.0% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Dinamo Zagreb) | Binary |
| -0.213 | 69.2% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica) | Binary |
| -0.217 | 69.6% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Lille OSC) | Binary |
| -0.223 | 69.2% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| -0.234 | 54.0% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg) | Binary |
| -0.250 | 54.0% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| -0.294 | 69.6% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Club Brugge) | Binary |
| -0.825 | 82.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| -1.121 | 87.0% | Will Nicolás Maduro be inaugurated for a new term in January 2025? | Binary |
| -1.255 | 97.5% | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Barack Obama) | Binary |
| -1.356 | 97.5% | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -1.551 | 15.4% | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-25) | Continuous |
| -2.383 | 6.8% | Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024? | Binary |
| -3.317 | 97.5% | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| -3.462 | 97.5% | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Alvin Bragg (Manhattan DA)) | Binary |
| -3.881 | 97.5% | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Juan Merchan (New York judge)) | Binary |
| -3.885 | 97.5% | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Letitia James (New York attorney general)) | Binary |
| -3.916 | 97.5% | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Stephanie Clifford (AKA Stormy Daniels)) | Binary |
| -3.993 | 97.5% | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Arthur Engoron (New York judge)) | Binary |
| -4.104 | 97.5% | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Jack Smith (special counsel)) | Binary |
| -4.295 | 97.5% | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA)) | Binary |
| -5.517 | 97.5% | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Michael Cohen (former Trump lawyer)) | Binary |
| -5.971 | 61.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| -14.529 | 61.5% | Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2026? | Binary |