JonathanShi

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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17.74		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
80.897	74.6%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
66.721	93.2%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
63.994	93.9%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
61.380	84.2%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
59.316	90.8%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
58.712	92.2%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
54.205	80.8%	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
47.415	98.0%	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
43.042	99.2%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
42.023	84.2%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
39.115	90.3%	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
37.919	99.4%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
36.507	84.9%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
32.942	99.8%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
31.282	87.5%	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
31.054	64.2%	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
30.710	66.2%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
30.343	89.9%	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
27.581	93.8%	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
26.622	69.5%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
25.622	99.7%	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
25.308	73.3%	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
24.461	85.0%	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
21.023	81.8%	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
19.844	73.4%	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
18.281	53.3%	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
17.947	79.0%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
16.127	84.6%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
15.807	72.9%	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
15.483	44.4%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
15.377	41.3%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
15.321	18.0%	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
14.483	76.8%	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
14.408	99.5%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
14.325	55.7%	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
12.498	18.6%	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
12.162	49.4%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
11.213	78.8%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
10.140	61.6%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
10.125	22.7%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
9.625	8.5%	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
8.762	77.6%	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
8.762	97.4%	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
8.405	55.7%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
8.086	40.4%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.072	98.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
7.973	28.1%	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
7.972	81.9%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
7.842	99.4%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
7.759	59.8%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
7.670	21.3%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
7.555	82.5%	How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?	Continuous
7.137	92.5%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
6.817	19.7%	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
6.734	80.4%	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
6.541	98.2%	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
6.474	20.2%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
6.083	30.3%	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
5.917	50.1%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
5.549	59.2%	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
5.186	50.0%	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
5.131	51.6%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
4.851	90.2%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
4.754	22.1%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
4.725	85.9%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
4.693	91.8%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
4.651	17.0%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
4.248	13.0%	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
4.166	59.7%	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
3.998	100.0%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
3.835	35.1%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
3.778	25.2%	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
3.601	51.7%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
3.593	69.7%	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
3.584	23.9%	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
3.177	97.2%	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
3.107	6.8%	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
3.088	79.0%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
3.037	67.2%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
2.979	84.4%	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
2.728	73.9%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
2.456	83.3%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
2.365	16.2%	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
2.278	39.7%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
2.197	3.5%	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
2.160	17.2%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
2.080	12.3%	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
2.071	19.3%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
2.006	33.3%	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
1.935	4.2%	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
1.657	85.5%	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	Binary
1.624	93.3%	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
1.477	20.3%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
1.445	3.4%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
1.193	10.6%	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
1.183	18.5%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
1.163	8.9%	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
1.019	6.9%	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
0.995	5.5%	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
0.743	29.8%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
0.633	57.9%	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
0.532	2.8%	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
0.337	2.5%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
0.253	0.3%	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
0.205	2.0%	What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?	Continuous
0.156	0.5%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
0.143	2.2%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
0.103	1.2%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
0.094	34.2%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
0.069	0.2%	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
0.062	1.2%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
0.058	0.2%	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
0.036	5.8%	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
0.033	0.1%	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
0.026	0.3%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-0.150	6.9%	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
-0.158	85.3%	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
-0.271	18.9%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
-0.427	1.6%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
-0.535	65.1%	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
-2.011	97.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-2.042	22.4%	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
-2.296	55.6%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-3.514	97.2%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
-3.772	98.9%	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
-4.741	87.4%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
-5.343	91.1%	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
-5.616	99.2%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
-6.824	64.0%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-9.567	99.9%	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
-13.164	27.9%	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
-16.117	92.1%	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
-17.651	81.8%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-21.151	82.4%	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous
-29.591	70.0%	At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?	Binary
-32.752	76.2%	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary