NeelNanda

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

4.41	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
85.453	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
70.181	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
61.490	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
38.300	Will Taipei enter Level 4 restrictions by May 31st?	Binary
35.243	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
34.374	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
33.328	Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?	Binary
25.537	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
18.049	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
17.935	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
16.908	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
14.195	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
12.268	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
11.667	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
11.624	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
10.704	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
10.053	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
9.536	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
8.922	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
7.961	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
7.245	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
6.480	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
6.095	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
6.007	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
5.948	Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?	Binary
5.932	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
5.393	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
4.949	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
4.870	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
4.664	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
4.637	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
3.875	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
3.598	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
3.535	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
3.503	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
2.931	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?	Continuous
2.894	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
2.849	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
1.723	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
1.440	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
1.225	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
1.029	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
0.386	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
0.063	What will be this question's comment threads h-index?	Continuous
-0.305	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
-0.309	What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559?	Continuous
-2.461	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-2.910	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
-4.000	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-4.185	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-11.489	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
-11.722	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
-11.781	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
-30.611	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
-57.515	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-58.819	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
-83.743	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
-89.376	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous