DerekTank

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

6.104	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
60.754	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
55.967	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
30.502	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
16.972	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
15.693	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
13.817	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
12.818	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
10.861	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
10.634	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
9.736	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
8.741	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
8.645	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
7.482	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
4.475	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
4.220	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
2.544	Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban?	Binary
2.343	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
2.122	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
1.298	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
1.237	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
0.641	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
0.616	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
0.007	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
-0.083	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
-0.335	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-1.564	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
-11.507	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
-24.464	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary