TeeJayKay

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

19.63		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
100.450	81.3%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
68.939	62.3%	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
65.930	58.4%	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
55.600	83.2%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
55.034	89.3%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
48.230	68.6%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
40.507	55.0%	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
38.908	96.1%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
38.550	83.7%	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
37.061	56.3%	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
32.178	87.1%	At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?	Binary
31.515	51.9%	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
29.907	54.8%	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
27.040	75.6%	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
25.041	71.4%	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
24.971	81.2%	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
22.336	69.3%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
21.937	81.3%	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
20.686	54.4%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
18.302	81.9%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
16.517	33.0%	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
16.159	68.0%	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
16.057	62.9%	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
15.774	96.0%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
15.248	8.9%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
14.803	91.6%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
14.787	71.7%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
14.733	59.7%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
13.946	90.6%	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
12.655	72.5%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
12.518	73.9%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
12.345	89.8%	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
12.108	78.8%	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
11.557	74.2%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
11.051	63.4%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
10.839	48.9%	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
10.722	68.5%	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
10.711	44.2%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
10.679	86.5%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
10.601	55.7%	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
10.472	85.9%	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
9.931	21.7%	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
9.458	56.7%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.905	57.2%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
8.788	42.1%	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
8.360	31.1%	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
8.340	75.9%	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
7.859	48.8%	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
7.850	73.6%	What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?	Continuous
7.775	81.0%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
7.174	55.0%	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
7.079	61.4%	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
6.971	67.8%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
6.640	59.0%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
6.297	39.5%	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
6.226	46.8%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
6.211	98.6%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
6.136	16.6%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
6.105	46.9%	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
5.979	22.4%	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
5.442	25.9%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
5.261	4.5%	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
5.143	20.1%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
5.115	62.4%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
5.005	69.0%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
4.912	23.1%	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
4.617	44.5%	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
4.616	7.5%	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
4.606	69.0%	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
4.597	38.2%	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
4.317	58.9%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
4.300	59.3%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
4.255	18.8%	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
4.196	50.3%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
4.124	81.4%	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
3.676	47.2%	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
3.648	55.7%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
3.487	27.5%	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
3.451	41.4%	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
3.435	50.7%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
3.404	45.3%	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
3.355	69.7%	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
3.297	19.8%	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
3.250	49.6%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
3.031	40.4%	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
2.969	54.5%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
2.857	83.9%	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
2.601	75.6%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
2.461	36.3%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
2.385	18.6%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
2.254	9.0%	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
2.106	9.1%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
2.091	14.2%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
1.962	69.0%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
1.942	32.1%	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
1.877	43.3%	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
1.543	31.1%	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
1.498	23.0%	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
1.389	79.5%	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
1.363	36.7%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
1.169	5.5%	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
1.131	17.1%	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
1.085	3.2%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
0.621	73.9%	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
0.586	11.2%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
0.466	1.0%	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
0.451	10.9%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
0.443	32.1%	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
0.414	0.5%	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
0.412	34.5%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
0.389	9.7%	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
0.353	1.0%	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
0.343	76.5%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
0.283	41.4%	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
0.160	0.8%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
0.108	1.1%	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
0.036	0.1%	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
-0.109	1.7%	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
-0.123	12.6%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
-0.281	3.0%	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
-0.293	10.7%	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-0.299	65.3%	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
-0.772	18.7%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
-1.004	63.2%	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
-1.129	46.7%	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
-1.694	33.1%	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?	Continuous
-2.147	86.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-2.243	9.2%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
-2.787	24.2%	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
-4.334	74.8%	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
-6.152	42.5%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-6.224	81.6%	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
-7.082	83.3%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-8.250	11.8%	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
-16.831	75.9%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous