91.221 | Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022? | Binary |
86.989 | Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022? | Binary |
78.705 | Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022? | Binary |
70.735 | Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022? | Binary |
53.761 | Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022? | Binary |
43.832 | What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022? | Continuous |
42.280 | Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
40.448 | What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022? | Continuous |
40.265 | Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? | Binary |
38.175 | Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? | Binary |
37.700 | Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
35.758 | How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023? | Continuous |
35.639 | What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022? | Continuous |
35.209 | What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine? | Continuous |
33.301 | Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023? | Binary |
33.029 | Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
32.855 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 5) | Continuous |
30.334 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023? | Binary |
29.124 | Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022? | Binary |
28.326 | How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
28.044 | Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023? | Binary |
24.465 | Will Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023? | Binary |
23.813 | Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022? | Binary |
22.886 | Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023? | Binary |
21.191 | Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
19.873 | How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022? | Continuous |
18.658 | Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections? | Binary |
18.412 | Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022? | Binary |
18.041 | Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023? | Binary |
17.680 | How many Virginia counties will have their COVID-19 Community Level classified as 'High' as of April 14th update? | Continuous |
16.189 | Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023? | Binary |
16.011 | Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022? | Binary |
15.547 | Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023? | Binary |
14.757 | Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
14.150 | What percentage of monkeypox cases in California will be among cisgender men who are gay/same-gender loving or bisexual? | Continuous |
13.950 | How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022? | Continuous |
13.877 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022? | Continuous |
13.823 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Jan 22) | Continuous |
13.150 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
12.341 | Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (David Waihiga Mwaure) | Binary |
12.099 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022) | Continuous |
11.973 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss) | Binary |
11.814 | Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? | Binary |
11.653 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022) | Continuous |
11.547 | Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023? | Binary |
11.510 | [short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? | Binary |
11.258 | Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest? | Binary |
11.188 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Jan 22) | Continuous |
10.892 | Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023? | Binary |
10.715 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Jan 22) | Continuous |
10.611 | Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022? | Binary |
10.542 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022? | Continuous |
10.382 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak) | Binary |
10.224 | Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022? | Binary |
9.792 | Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election? | Binary |
9.481 | Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022? | Binary |
9.446 | Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Jan 22) | Continuous |
9.420 | If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto? | Binary |
9.169 | Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024? | Binary |
9.072 | Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023? | Binary |
9.001 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023? | Binary |
8.984 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Jan 22) | Continuous |
8.763 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Feb, 11 2022? | Continuous |
8.661 | Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022? | Binary |
8.263 | What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28? | Continuous |
7.912 | Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022? | Binary |
7.850 | What will the estimated cybersecurity workforce gap for the United States be on October 15, 2022? | Continuous |
7.820 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022? | Continuous |
7.602 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on April 1, 2022? | Continuous |
7.578 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022? | Continuous |
7.217 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer) | Binary |
6.867 | Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 5) | Continuous |
6.684 | Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022? | Binary |
6.289 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022? | Binary |
6.231 | Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022? | Binary |
6.169 | Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
6.125 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023? | Binary |
6.045 | Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023? | Binary |
5.885 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Jan 22) | Continuous |
5.794 | Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
5.645 | Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5) | Continuous |
5.527 | Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (William Ruto) | Binary |
5.508 | Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
5.229 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022? | Continuous |
5.011 | Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022? | Binary |
4.900 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt) | Binary |
4.755 | Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
4.733 | Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022? | Binary |
4.582 | What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022? | Continuous |
4.527 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022? | Continuous |
4.359 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022? | Continuous |
4.343 | Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023? | Binary |
4.113 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022? | Continuous |
4.097 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022? | Continuous |
4.026 | Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
3.941 | Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Max Verstappen) | Binary |
3.874 | Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022? | Binary |
3.799 | [Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December? | Binary |
3.795 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
3.489 | Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022? | Binary |
3.472 | Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5) | Continuous |
3.351 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 1, 2022) | Continuous |
3.321 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
3.285 | Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023? | Binary |
3.250 | Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022? | Binary |
3.171 | By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light? | Binary |
3.115 | Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022? | Binary |
2.984 | Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023? | Binary |
2.940 | Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023? | Binary |
2.939 | Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Charles Leclerc) | Binary |
2.867 | Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (Raila Odinga) | Binary |
2.861 | Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (George Wajackoyah) | Binary |
2.813 | By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine? | Binary |
2.596 | Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Lewis Hamilton) | Binary |
2.545 | Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022? | Binary |
2.427 | Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022? | Binary |
2.345 | Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022? | Binary |
2.063 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 15h of April, 2022? | Continuous |
2.062 | If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN? | Continuous |
2.044 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022? | Continuous |
2.037 | Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
1.919 | Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022? | Binary |
1.874 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Houston Astros) | Binary |
1.753 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson) | Binary |
1.715 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022) | Continuous |
1.653 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022? | Continuous |
1.627 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 1st of April, 2022? | Continuous |
1.603 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace) | Binary |
1.581 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones) | Binary |
1.565 | Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023? | Binary |
1.561 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Jan 28, 2022? | Continuous |
1.474 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt) | Binary |
1.449 | Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022? | Binary |
1.439 | When will China end Covid Zero? | Continuous |
1.409 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022? | Continuous |
1.286 | Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5) | Continuous |
1.126 | Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023? | Binary |
1.077 | What will be the 7-day average of % people wearing masks most or all of the time in public in Virginia on April 15th, 2022? | Continuous |
1.046 | What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022? | Continuous |
1.036 | Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022? | Binary |
0.953 | Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023? | Binary |
0.927 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch) | Binary |
0.918 | What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (September 1, 2022) | Continuous |
0.916 | Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (George Russell) | Binary |
0.909 | Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022? | Binary |
0.874 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat) | Binary |
0.815 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove) | Binary |
0.809 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi) | Binary |
0.805 | Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023? | Binary |
0.801 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid) | Binary |
0.793 | Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Sergio Perez) | Binary |
0.775 | Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022? | Binary |
0.761 | If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023? | Binary |
0.748 | Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023? | Binary |
0.743 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps) | Binary |
0.737 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 1, 2022) | Continuous |
0.734 | Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Carlos Sainz) | Binary |
0.725 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker) | Binary |
0.686 | Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023? | Binary |
0.643 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel) | Binary |
0.598 | How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded? | Continuous |
0.535 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022? | Continuous |
0.494 | Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies? | Binary |
0.490 | Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022? | Binary |
0.471 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022? | Continuous |
0.443 | Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023? | Binary |
0.424 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Philadelphia Phillies) | Binary |
0.421 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab) | Binary |
0.357 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman) | Binary |
0.281 | Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023? | Binary |
0.264 | Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded? | Binary |
-0.035 | By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk? | Binary |
-0.041 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 22nd, 2022? | Continuous |
-0.310 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022? | Continuous |
-0.384 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022) | Continuous |
-0.534 | What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022? | Continuous |
-0.547 | Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023? | Binary |
-0.552 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022) | Continuous |
-0.664 | Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02? | Binary |
-1.299 | Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022? | Binary |
-1.549 | Will the Buffalo Bills play in Super Bowl LVI? | Binary |
-1.586 | Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022? | Binary |
-2.035 | Will Russia default on its debt in 2022? | Binary |
-2.214 | Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 5) | Continuous |
-2.664 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila) | Binary |
-2.875 | Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022? | Binary |
-3.310 | What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (November 1, 2022) | Continuous |
-3.901 | Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia? | Binary |
-4.364 | Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022? | Binary |
-5.613 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022) | Continuous |
-5.704 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022) | Continuous |
-5.858 | How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022) | Continuous |
-6.304 | Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)? | Binary |
-6.766 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor) | Binary |
-7.632 | Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus? | Binary |
-9.112 | Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022? | Binary |
-10.672 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)) | Binary |
-11.875 | Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate? | Binary |
-12.497 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos) | Binary |
-14.873 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022? | Continuous |
-14.996 | Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again? | Binary |
-19.445 | [short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022? | Binary |
-20.877 | How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022? | Continuous |
-22.098 | Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013? | Binary |
-26.822 | In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”? | Continuous |
-27.891 | Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022? | Binary |
-29.152 | Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022? | Binary |
-29.715 | What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (January 1, 2023) | Continuous |