| 34.737 | 65.8% | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 34.258 | 99.7% | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 33.848 | 99.9% | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 28.874 | 72.5% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| 27.401 | 93.0% | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 26.972 | 96.1% | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 23.637 | 62.4% | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 22.135 | 44.1% | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 18.549 | 99.0% | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| 18.104 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 17.222 | 96.9% | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.255 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 12.241 | 99.2% | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| 11.923 | 59.9% | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 10.891 | 53.0% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 10.156 | 99.7% | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 9.944 | 99.1% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 9.928 | 99.1% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 8.955 | 37.3% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 8.242 | 99.7% | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.139 | 31.4% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| 8.091 | 74.0% | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 7.751 | 50.2% | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 7.518 | 97.9% | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 6.845 | 53.0% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 6.186 | 75.9% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 6.181 | 7.5% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 6.077 | 75.9% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 5.892 | 31.4% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 5.347 | 45.4% | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 5.143 | 53.0% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 5.106 | 53.0% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 4.964 | 24.8% | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 4.862 | 99.8% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 4.724 | 46.3% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 4.430 | 51.4% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 4.207 | 92.3% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 4.137 | 96.8% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 3.788 | 46.3% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 3.693 | 27.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 3.569 | 93.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 3.494 | 22.9% | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 3.411 | 46.3% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 3.231 | 30.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 3.138 | 45.2% | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 3.132 | 31.4% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 2.946 | 25.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 2.800 | 7.7% | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Green Party of England and Wales) | Continuous |
| 2.784 | 19.4% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 2.662 | 93.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 2.375 | 30.6% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 2.340 | 82.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 2.285 | 53.0% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 2.126 | 7.7% | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Conservative and Unionist Party) | Continuous |
| 1.968 | 37.4% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 1.933 | 99.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 1.896 | 93.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 1.896 | 27.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 1.721 | 93.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 1.667 | 93.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 1.592 | 31.4% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 1.589 | 19.4% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 1.558 | 93.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 1.553 | 98.8% | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.539 | 1.7% | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.535 | 93.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 1.525 | 93.3% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 1.444 | 93.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 1.365 | 51.4% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 1.354 | 93.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 1.347 | 18.3% | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.337 | 2.2% | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 1.295 | 99.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 1.251 | 1.4% | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.231 | 31.4% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 1.169 | 99.8% | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 1.161 | 7.8% | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 1.142 | 37.4% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 1.132 | 8.6% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 1.077 | 1.5% | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.066 | 58.6% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 1.058 | 19.4% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 1.048 | 2.7% | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.028 | 2.3% | Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.998 | 99.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 0.968 | 24.5% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 0.962 | 86.3% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 0.940 | 27.5% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 0.928 | 93.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 0.848 | 51.4% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 0.813 | 62.1% | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.810 | 13.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 0.792 | 1.7% | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.737 | 2.0% | Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.727 | 93.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 0.673 | 7.8% | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 0.596 | 1.3% | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 0.590 | 0.5% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 0.587 | 58.6% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 0.586 | 58.6% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 0.583 | 1.7% | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.558 | 71.5% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 0.556 | 96.7% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 0.524 | 91.2% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 0.499 | 18.8% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 0.496 | 84.6% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 0.442 | 2.2% | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.428 | 84.6% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 0.411 | 7.8% | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 0.407 | 5.6% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 0.400 | 96.0% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 0.369 | 1.9% | Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.362 | 93.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 0.350 | 25.8% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 0.334 | 89.5% | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 0.311 | 37.4% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 0.306 | 8.6% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 0.305 | 7.8% | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 0.278 | 7.8% | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 0.272 | 7.5% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 0.208 | 7.8% | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 0.207 | 0.4% | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 0.193 | 7.8% | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 0.165 | 0.2% | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Reform UK) | Continuous |
| 0.156 | 0.5% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 0.152 | 2.6% | Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024? | Binary |
| 0.138 | 22.7% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 0.133 | 0.4% | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 0.108 | 0.4% | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 0.086 | 0.5% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 0.084 | 5.6% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 0.077 | 0.5% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.076 | 0.4% | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 0.055 | 5.6% | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 0.051 | 0.5% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 0.038 | 0.4% | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 0.035 | 0.5% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.012 | 0.5% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.012 | 0.5% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| -0.395 | 24.8% | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| -1.151 | 7.7% | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrats) | Continuous |
| -3.063 | 7.7% | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Labour Party) | Continuous |
| -3.875 | 7.7% | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -7.526 | 95.2% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| -13.017 | 99.7% | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| -19.949 | 23.5% | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |