| 121.330 | 100.0% | When will Microsoft release Windows 12? | Continuous |
| 98.910 | 72.7% | Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025? | Binary |
| 68.846 | 94.5% | How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025? | Continuous |
| 67.713 | 85.9% | Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2025) | Binary |
| 66.015 | 94.6% | What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2025) | Continuous |
| 60.800 | 97.9% | When will OpenAI publicly release Sora, its text-to-video model? | Continuous |
| 60.149 | 98.0% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Continuous |
| 57.506 | 94.9% | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 54.055 | 98.2% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Continuous |
| 53.797 | 77.1% | When will GPT-5 be available to the general public? | Continuous |
| 51.124 | 97.0% | What will be the nominal price of gas per gallon in the US on the following dates? (January 2026) | Continuous |
| 45.259 | 96.2% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Southampton) | Continuous |
| 44.087 | 99.9% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Meta) | Binary |
| 42.326 | 93.7% | Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025? | Binary |
| 42.284 | 98.6% | Before 2026, how many US states will pass legislation regulating deepfakes? | Continuous |
| 36.870 | 98.0% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
| 36.237 | 98.9% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Alibaba) | Binary |
| 35.834 | 97.9% | Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026? | Binary |
| 35.805 | 98.9% | Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026? | Binary |
| 35.582 | 98.2% | Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538? | Binary |
| 35.208 | 99.9% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Microsoft) | Binary |
| 34.444 | 96.4% | Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026? | Binary |
| 34.438 | 100.0% | Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 33.576 | 99.9% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Apple) | Binary |
| 33.509 | 98.2% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
| 33.324 | 98.5% | Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI? | Binary |
| 32.923 | 40.9% | On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone? (2025) | Continuous |
| 31.254 | 98.8% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 30.176 | 98.3% | Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026? | Binary |
| 29.731 | 97.6% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? | Binary |
| 29.518 | 99.9% | Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models? (OpenAI / GPT-5) | Binary |
| 28.658 | 99.9% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Baidu) | Binary |
| 27.360 | 89.7% | Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025? | Binary |
| 26.266 | 94.2% | Will SpaceX re-use a Starship booster before October 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 26.142 | 98.5% | In the following years, what will be the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark? (2025) | Continuous |
| 26.012 | 99.6% | Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026? | Binary |
| 25.625 | 98.6% | On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public? | Continuous |
| 24.929 | 98.5% | Will bitcoin reach $200k in 2025? | Binary |
| 24.286 | 96.2% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Ipswich) | Continuous |
| 24.225 | 98.3% | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025? | Binary |
| 23.780 | 98.5% | Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026? | Binary |
| 23.116 | 98.0% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Brentford) | Continuous |
| 22.600 | 58.3% | Will there be a global recession before 2026, according to the IMF? | Binary |
| 22.298 | 99.9% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Mistral AI) | Binary |
| 22.263 | 99.9% | Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models? (Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus) | Binary |
| 22.092 | 97.4% | How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025? | Continuous |
| 21.704 | 40.9% | What Percentage of Democrats and Republicans will Vote-by-Mail in 2024? (% Republicans Voting-by-Mail) | Continuous |
| 21.610 | 98.5% | Will the US eliminate the Department of Education through law or presidential reorganization before 2026? | Binary |
| 21.369 | 94.9% | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 20.039 | 99.2% | Will a bilateral ceasefire be announced in the Ukraine war, before April 19, 2025? | Binary |
| 19.745 | 99.9% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (xAI) | Binary |
| 19.646 | 98.7% | Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 18.671 | 98.0% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Brighton And Hove Albion) | Continuous |
| 18.577 | 99.9% | Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 18.416 | 96.4% | Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026? | Binary |
| 17.003 | 99.9% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Hugging Face) | Binary |
| 16.725 | 99.8% | Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 16.355 | 98.4% | Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026? | Binary |
| 16.154 | 99.4% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Perplexity AI) | Binary |
| 14.538 | 94.9% | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 14.495 | 99.8% | Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 14.280 | 98.0% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Continuous |
| 13.970 | 99.4% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Cohere) | Binary |
| 13.781 | 97.8% | Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025? | Binary |
| 13.501 | 98.3% | How many pounds of chicken per capita will the US consume in 2025? | Continuous |
| 13.146 | 98.2% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
| 13.095 | 96.2% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Leicester) | Continuous |
| 12.945 | 91.6% | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024? | Binary |
| 12.940 | 99.2% | Will the S&P 500 Index increase over the year 2025? | Binary |
| 12.411 | 99.4% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 12.311 | 99.3% | Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months? | Binary |
| 12.177 | 99.8% | Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 11.993 | 98.6% | On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States? | Binary |
| 11.897 | 90.6% | Will car crash deaths in the US be below 40,000 for 2024? | Binary |
| 11.889 | 99.9% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (IBM) | Binary |
| 11.789 | 98.8% | Will Boeing file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 11.445 | 98.0% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Continuous |
| 10.968 | 69.2% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
| 10.255 | 94.9% | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 9.056 | 96.8% | Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 8.840 | 82.2% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| 8.827 | 8.1% | Before January 1, 2026, will Israel formally lift its warnings against Palestinians returning to northern Gaza? | Binary |
| 8.653 | 99.2% | Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026? | Binary |
| 8.495 | 99.1% | Will Ukraine start revoking passports of military draft age men residing abroad before 2026? | Binary |
| 7.662 | 99.4% | Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026? | Binary |
| 7.412 | 98.0% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Everton) | Continuous |
| 6.950 | 46.1% | Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 6.886 | 64.2% | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be confirmed by the US Senate as Secretary of Health and Human Services before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 6.755 | 99.7% | Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 6.192 | 34.8% | Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (3,000) | Binary |
| 6.185 | 98.0% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Fulham) | Continuous |
| 5.501 | 99.7% | Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 5.281 | 99.0% | Who will be elected President of Poland in 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 4.337 | 98.0% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Continuous |
| 4.044 | 12.0% | When will SpaceX first successfully catch a Starship booster with the tower? | Continuous |
| 3.957 | 20.6% | What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026? | Multiple Choice |
| 3.638 | 40.9% | What Percentage of Democrats and Republicans will Vote-by-Mail in 2024? (% Democrats Voting-by-Mail) | Continuous |
| 3.595 | 98.0% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Continuous |
| 3.314 | 82.2% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 3.137 | 31.7% | How many measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2025? | Continuous |
| 3.023 | 98.0% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Continuous |
| 3.002 | 19.6% | Will another US state ban lab-grown meat in 2025? | Binary |
| 2.998 | 79.1% | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? (No) → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 2.727 | 7.0% | Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024? | Binary |
| 2.616 | 53.9% | Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (100) | Binary |
| 2.424 | 5.5% | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-25) | Continuous |
| 2.341 | 61.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 2.295 | 98.0% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Continuous |
| 1.196 | 90.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 1.133 | 61.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 0.572 | 61.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (AS Monaco) | Binary |
| 0.446 | 69.6% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Lille OSC) | Binary |
| 0.420 | 98.0% | Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025? | Binary |
| 0.367 | 16.8% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (AI21) | Binary |
| 0.340 | 61.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Stade Brest) | Binary |
| 0.338 | 69.6% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (PSV Eindhoven) | Binary |
| 0.327 | 69.2% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica) | Binary |
| 0.327 | 16.8% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (C3.ai) | Binary |
| 0.298 | 69.6% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Club Brugge) | Binary |
| 0.296 | 53.9% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (VfD Stuttgart) | Binary |
| 0.271 | 82.2% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Aston Villa) | Binary |
| 0.266 | 53.9% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg) | Binary |
| 0.261 | 53.9% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Girona) | Binary |
| 0.251 | 53.9% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Dinamo Zagreb) | Binary |
| 0.246 | 69.2% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 0.237 | 53.9% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Sparta Praha) | Binary |
| 0.235 | 53.9% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Bologna) | Binary |
| 0.228 | 53.9% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| 0.227 | 53.9% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Red Star Belgrade) | Binary |
| 0.224 | 53.9% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Slovan Bratislava) | Binary |
| 0.224 | 53.9% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Sturm Graz) | Binary |
| 0.175 | 53.9% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 0.154 | 53.9% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 0.127 | 61.6% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Juventus) | Binary |
| 0.095 | 61.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Sporting Lisbon) | Binary |
| - | 4.8% | What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (May 2025) | Continuous |
| -0.157 | 69.2% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Bayer Leverkusen) | Binary |
| -0.158 | 69.6% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Atlético Madrid) | Binary |
| -0.392 | 61.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Atalanta) | Binary |
| -0.501 | 82.2% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| -3.390 | 89.9% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| -3.990 | 98.2% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Continuous |
| -5.169 | 56.3% | Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (1,000) | Binary |
| -5.676 | 14.3% | Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence? | Binary |
| -5.977 | 98.0% | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Continuous |
| -6.559 | 61.3% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| -10.518 | 63.1% | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Amazon) | Binary |
| -10.695 | 98.8% | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| -10.881 | 87.0% | Will Nicolás Maduro be inaugurated for a new term in January 2025? | Binary |
| -12.377 | 43.9% | Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026? | Binary |
| -14.648 | 99.5% | Will there be Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria within one year from October 28, 2024? | Binary |
| -16.358 | 99.6% | Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026? | Binary |
| -32.331 | 97.6% | Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025? | Binary |
| -58.971 | 99.5% | Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2026? | Binary |
| -91.993 | 84.7% | Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors? | Binary |