OpenSystem

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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13.44		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
79.142	72.9%	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
75.895	99.9%	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
66.277	100.0%	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
57.973	97.1%	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
48.656	82.1%	Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Multiple Choice
48.361	100.0%	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
44.084	99.3%	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
42.276	100.0%	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
41.777	99.2%	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
40.987	99.8%	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
40.887	99.5%	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
40.311	96.0%	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
38.379	89.1%	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
37.654	100.0%	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
35.599	100.0%	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
35.395	97.0%	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
32.415	87.4%	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
31.768	90.8%	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
31.403	90.8%	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
31.314	99.4%	Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?	Binary
31.248	99.5%	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
28.743	99.9%	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
28.375	96.1%	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
28.172	91.2%	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
28.036	100.0%	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
27.734	90.8%	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
27.653	99.1%	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
25.777	98.8%	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.542	97.4%	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
21.178	42.9%	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
21.171	96.6%	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
21.158	92.6%	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
20.515	98.5%	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
20.492	91.8%	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
19.646	87.4%	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
19.334	81.7%	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
19.286	89.4%	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
18.932	97.2%	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
18.536	71.7%	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
17.826	100.0%	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
17.438	98.0%	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
17.351	34.1%	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
17.252	97.9%	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
16.190	99.4%	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
15.934	100.0%	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
15.657	98.5%	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
15.325	100.0%	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
15.030	18.0%	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
15.018	55.3%	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
14.957	100.0%	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
14.502	94.6%	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
14.126	81.5%	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
14.101	94.3%	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
14.096	60.3%	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
13.593	100.0%	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
13.307	56.9%	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
12.922	100.0%	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
12.806	40.3%	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
12.689	96.2%	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
12.386	100.0%	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
12.135	94.5%	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
11.922	38.2%	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
11.213	84.6%	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
10.957	97.2%	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
10.876	90.8%	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
10.766	100.0%	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
10.503	81.2%	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
10.393	95.1%	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
9.754	51.1%	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
8.548	17.0%	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
7.826	95.8%	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
7.335	98.1%	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
7.069	99.8%	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
6.928	62.3%	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
6.691	99.4%	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
6.673	99.5%	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
6.597	98.6%	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
6.489	87.7%	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
6.015	58.3%	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
5.980	60.0%	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
5.897	100.0%	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
5.762	97.7%	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
5.651	93.8%	Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?	Binary
5.148	94.7%	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
5.104	96.9%	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
5.070	99.8%	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
4.304	93.8%	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
4.217	98.9%	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
3.540	45.9%	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
3.454	65.0%	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
3.445	39.9%	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
3.325	91.9%	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
3.246	92.0%	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
3.215	93.5%	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
2.969	72.6%	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
2.953	13.4%	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
2.909	62.3%	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
2.846	25.2%	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
2.636	83.7%	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
1.987	42.5%	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
1.708	88.6%	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
1.453	98.8%	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.892	89.4%	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
0.834	97.2%	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
0.570	83.0%	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
0.289	1.5%	Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?	Binary
0.157	36.7%	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.618	1.1%	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
-0.941	73.9%	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
-1.019	27.1%	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
-1.482	16.5%	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
-1.897	97.8%	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
-2.007	68.2%	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
-2.528	8.8%	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-2.580	8.1%	Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.744	81.8%	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
-7.451	35.7%	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
-8.204	88.5%	On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?	Binary
-11.179	86.6%	Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?	Binary
-17.469	47.0%	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-19.314	97.5%	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-21.018	99.8%	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
-23.389	99.0%	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
-23.814	48.8%	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-29.118	99.9%	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-31.043	100.0%	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-33.437	93.5%	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-39.609	67.5%	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
-48.374	41.4%	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
-48.729	63.5%	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-52.106	63.4%	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
-77.221	61.9%	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary