| 71.521 | 61.1% | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| 39.247 | 57.8% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 39.145 | 65.5% | How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q2 (FY2025, ends Jul 2024)) | Continuous |
| 35.278 | 63.0% | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 32.184 | 53.6% | How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"? | Continuous |
| 31.199 | 75.1% | How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q3 (FY2025, ends Oct 2024)) | Continuous |
| 30.987 | 66.2% | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 28.695 | 56.2% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| 28.588 | 73.3% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| 25.075 | 51.2% | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| 24.121 | 73.3% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 23.311 | 44.1% | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 22.042 | 28.1% | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 21.869 | 56.2% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 20.152 | 56.2% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 20.117 | 56.2% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 18.964 | 68.9% | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 18.459 | 76.0% | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 16.900 | 78.2% | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 16.073 | 56.2% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| 15.595 | 16.9% | What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election? | Continuous |
| 15.411 | 23.5% | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| 14.804 | 43.9% | How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q1 (FY2025, ends Apr 2024)) | Continuous |
| 14.782 | 43.1% | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 14.665 | 57.8% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 14.577 | 73.0% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 14.295 | 51.2% | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.112 | 62.4% | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 13.064 | 48.6% | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 12.954 | 13.3% | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Reform UK) | Continuous |
| 11.487 | 70.4% | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 11.079 | 43.2% | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.808 | 56.8% | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 10.563 | 56.2% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 9.699 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 9.694 | 73.0% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 8.532 | 79.3% | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.390 | 66.3% | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.225 | 20.8% | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Green Party of England and Wales) | Continuous |
| 8.129 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 8.000 | 15.6% | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 7.697 | 50.5% | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 7.069 | 11.7% | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| 6.938 | 56.2% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 6.870 | 52.0% | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 6.496 | 56.2% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 6.445 | 53.9% | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 6.377 | 56.2% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 6.082 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 5.968 | 73.0% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 5.860 | 56.2% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 5.842 | 23.5% | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 5.659 | 57.8% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 5.292 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 5.272 | 56.2% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 4.876 | 52.4% | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.803 | 39.5% | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 4.728 | 57.8% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 4.691 | 69.8% | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 4.628 | 56.2% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 4.584 | 39.7% | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 4.322 | 73.0% | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 4.295 | 56.2% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 4.267 | 10.5% | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| 4.134 | 20.7% | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 4.015 | 56.2% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 3.856 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 3.825 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 3.524 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 3.517 | 4.1% | When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard? | Continuous |
| 3.285 | 56.2% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 3.268 | 20.8% | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| 3.074 | 23.5% | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 2.901 | 49.0% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 2.764 | 56.2% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 2.507 | 7.9% | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 2.224 | 36.1% | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 2.166 | 56.2% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 2.095 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 1.941 | 51.9% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 1.781 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 1.768 | 2.7% | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 1.544 | 8.5% | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 1.473 | 23.5% | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 1.447 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 1.446 | 49.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 1.257 | 52.1% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 1.206 | 45.5% | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 1.196 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 1.185 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 1.167 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 1.142 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 1.133 | 49.7% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 1.056 | 34.2% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 1.032 | 1.0% | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley) | Continuous |
| 0.999 | 43.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 0.956 | 57.8% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.950 | 57.8% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.905 | 38.8% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 0.903 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 0.889 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 0.888 | 52.1% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 0.872 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 0.850 | 59.8% | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.804 | 26.0% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 0.790 | 23.5% | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 0.742 | 4.1% | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.715 | 61.0% | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.708 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 0.687 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 0.673 | 23.5% | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 0.637 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 0.634 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 0.629 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 0.590 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 0.529 | 26.0% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 0.526 | 18.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 0.516 | 52.1% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 0.502 | 52.1% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 0.463 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 0.458 | 57.8% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.447 | 4.1% | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.429 | 23.5% | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 0.423 | 23.5% | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 0.419 | 52.1% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 0.398 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 0.276 | 2.7% | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.261 | 30.5% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 0.249 | 1.7% | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.185 | 43.9% | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 0.179 | 22.9% | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 0.133 | 2.7% | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| -0.293 | 20.8% | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrats) | Continuous |
| -1.095 | 56.2% | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| -1.530 | 20.8% | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Labour Party) | Continuous |
| -2.134 | 20.8% | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Conservative and Unionist Party) | Continuous |
| -3.676 | 57.8% | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -4.923 | 48.6% | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| -6.686 | 31.1% | Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| -8.272 | 56.3% | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |