owentyingling

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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40.58		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
103.195	95.8%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
89.859	94.2%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
89.383	95.4%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
88.580	86.5%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
83.905	96.0%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
77.424	97.8%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
68.700	95.5%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
67.755	61.4%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
67.536	91.7%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
67.460	97.2%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
67.011	88.9%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
64.834	95.4%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
64.240	92.1%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
63.795	91.0%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
60.758	83.0%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
60.009	94.7%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
59.342	89.7%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
58.975	61.4%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
57.102	68.3%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
52.867	92.0%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
52.530	50.0%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
52.200	86.3%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
51.489	53.8%	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
46.757	88.6%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
46.182	97.8%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
44.692	72.3%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
42.128	88.3%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
41.447	50.0%	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
39.460	39.8%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
35.130	82.5%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
34.939	33.8%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
34.755	54.4%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
33.668	97.0%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
33.053	50.0%	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
32.980	69.9%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
32.576	80.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
31.524	97.9%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
30.765	85.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
30.478	55.3%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
30.220	54.8%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
29.065	74.0%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
26.759	50.0%	Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
26.625	50.0%	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
26.054	82.5%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
25.903	79.2%	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
23.845	70.0%	Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?	Binary
23.718	88.2%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
23.124	24.0%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
23.041	35.2%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
22.976	82.6%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
22.535	87.3%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
22.078	73.3%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
22.052	55.5%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
21.815	50.0%	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
20.685	99.5%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
20.192	50.0%	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
20.033	76.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
19.596	50.0%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
19.190	20.6%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
18.556	99.8%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
17.937	50.0%	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
17.851	50.0%	Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?	Binary
17.657	96.6%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
17.505	50.0%	Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
17.294	97.4%	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
17.208	50.0%	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
16.369	46.6%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
16.299	97.3%	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
15.567	35.0%	Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026?	Binary
15.483	53.0%	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
15.257	76.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
13.574	74.0%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
13.212	98.6%	Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?	Binary
12.780	50.0%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
12.439	76.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
12.057	50.0%	Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?	Binary
11.265	50.0%	Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?	Binary
10.669	16.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
10.287	87.6%	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
9.976	50.0%	Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?	Binary
9.670	50.0%	Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?	Binary
9.482	54.8%	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
8.557	14.3%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
8.259	76.2%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
8.106	74.0%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
7.827	50.0%	Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?	Binary
6.797	17.8%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
6.742	54.5%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
5.867	13.8%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
5.864	50.0%	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
5.122	50.0%	Will Spain's economy grow more than the Eurozone's between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025?	Binary
4.690	50.0%	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
4.480	54.8%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
3.940	42.4%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?	Binary
3.298	50.9%	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
3.297	45.1%	Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?	Binary
3.273	50.0%	Will Pedro Sánchez still be president of Spain at the end of 2025?	Binary
2.683	4.6%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
2.379	19.2%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
2.240	2.9%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
2.200	10.5%	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
2.152	28.3%	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
1.382	26.7%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
1.341	23.5%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
-8.084	60.0%	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
-8.448	43.1%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-9.905	50.0%	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-12.176	50.0%	Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?	Binary
-12.235	93.2%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
-14.438	93.2%	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
-16.985	33.8%	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-160.965	92.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary