pecotdegallo

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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31.04		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
123.185	99.8%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
110.611	98.8%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
92.282	98.6%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
91.609	98.5%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
87.439	99.9%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
86.578	97.8%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
85.577	98.6%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
81.554	97.6%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
81.277	99.6%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
78.729	96.1%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
72.020	96.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
70.106	99.8%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
68.593	99.9%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
67.838	98.8%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
65.058	98.9%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
62.753	99.9%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
62.609	94.4%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
62.293	99.7%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
61.035	97.5%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
59.291	97.3%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
57.626	99.9%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
57.282	98.0%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
54.915	50.0%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
54.690	99.8%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
52.699	50.0%	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
50.806	92.7%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
50.018	98.1%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
47.680	90.6%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
46.288	96.1%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
40.727	98.9%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
38.609	99.9%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
36.419	53.1%	How much will the 2025 reconciliation bill increase the deficit from Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 to FY 2034?	Continuous
34.934	99.9%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
32.661	98.9%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
32.119	50.0%	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
31.658	98.1%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
31.297	98.1%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
30.266	41.8%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
29.296	50.0%	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
29.076	50.0%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
28.612	98.7%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
28.145	92.7%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
28.119	97.2%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
27.921	50.0%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
27.245	50.0%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
26.506	98.0%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
24.509	58.6%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (May 5 - May 9)	Continuous
24.058	97.2%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
22.285	93.3%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
21.652	93.3%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
21.297	97.6%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
20.246	70.0%	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
19.920	54.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
19.667	97.1%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
18.541	58.6%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
18.426	50.0%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
18.305	99.8%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
17.729	81.2%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
17.312	50.0%	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
17.111	99.9%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
17.061	83.5%	Will Gold Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apr 21 - May 2)	Binary
15.324	54.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
14.569	50.0%	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
14.089	98.1%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
11.547	58.6%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
11.112	99.5%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
9.711	50.0%	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
9.124	18.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
8.852	50.0%	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
8.185	97.3%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
8.057	16.3%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
7.835	25.4%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
7.296	30.0%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Capped credits)	Binary
4.944	58.6%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (May 5 - May 16)	Binary
3.211	50.0%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
3.073	92.7%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
3.008	28.2%	When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?	Multiple Choice
2.401	7.5%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
0.938	50.0%	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
0.935	3.4%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
0.694	30.0%	What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45Q carbon capture tax credit established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?	Multiple Choice
0.611	9.3%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
0.028	29.5%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (FEOC exclusion)	Binary
-0.015	96.4%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
-0.519	30.0%	Which of these changes to the 45X clean energy manufacturing tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act will occur before January 1, 2026? (Limits on share buybacks)	Binary
-1.090	3.4%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 2)	Continuous
-3.040	93.3%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
-3.666	29.2%	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
-7.823	54.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
-9.634	50.0%	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
-9.652	93.3%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
-10.855	50.0%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
-13.108	98.7%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-13.573	98.1%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-19.329	99.9%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
-20.193	89.4%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
-24.158	84.5%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
-27.111	58.6%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
-31.208	97.5%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-34.507	98.0%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-64.366	70.4%	Will Crude Oil Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 weeks? (Apr 14 - Apr 25)	Binary
-112.210	98.1%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
-136.993	94.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary