BlakeDuvall

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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35.51		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
120.096	99.4%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
108.994	90.0%	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
107.006	98.4%	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
105.589	98.5%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
101.670	98.4%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
101.593	99.6%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
101.145	99.7%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
98.527	99.4%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
96.507	95.9%	What will be the homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil in 2024?	Continuous
91.383	99.7%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
91.356	99.4%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
90.489	99.6%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
89.984	99.4%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
87.785	99.8%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
85.871	99.8%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
77.658	99.9%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
77.229	99.8%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
76.536	60.0%	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
72.383	99.7%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
71.545	99.2%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
69.717	99.5%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
69.007	99.2%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
65.239	99.1%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
64.483	99.2%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
64.120	99.8%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
62.192	99.5%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
60.332	99.8%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
59.323	99.9%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
57.988	99.2%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
54.571	99.5%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
53.295	99.3%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
53.232	99.4%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
50.697	99.0%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
50.445	90.2%	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
48.674	60.0%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
45.360	98.4%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
44.603	99.8%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
42.298	99.5%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
41.974	99.3%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
41.675	90.2%	Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?	Binary
40.259	90.2%	Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
39.121	60.0%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
38.603	70.9%	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
37.158	99.8%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
34.754	97.1%	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
32.893	99.8%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
31.540	98.4%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
31.423	99.3%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
30.956	90.2%	Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?	Binary
30.415	98.9%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
29.458	50.0%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
29.345	99.2%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
28.891	98.9%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
28.120	89.8%	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
27.690	98.3%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
26.754	90.2%	Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?	Binary
26.582	50.0%	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
25.257	99.3%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
24.550	99.7%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
23.871	50.0%	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
23.503	50.0%	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
23.495	50.0%	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
21.815	50.0%	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
21.154	50.0%	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
20.472	12.3%	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
19.705	50.0%	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
19.613	99.8%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
19.543	90.2%	Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
18.370	98.5%	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
18.160	99.7%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
17.918	98.5%	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
17.141	96.8%	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
16.362	50.0%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
15.824	33.2%	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
15.707	99.4%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
15.637	90.2%	Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?	Binary
13.558	90.2%	Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?	Binary
13.232	50.0%	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
12.394	98.4%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
12.014	18.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
11.933	50.0%	Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?	Binary
11.803	90.0%	Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?	Binary
11.245	90.2%	Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?	Binary
10.975	51.6%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
10.037	51.9%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
9.506	16.2%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
8.683	90.2%	Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?	Binary
8.651	90.2%	Will Pedro Sánchez still be president of Spain at the end of 2025?	Binary
7.029	15.1%	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
6.783	90.2%	Will Spain's economy grow more than the Eurozone's between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025?	Binary
6.723	90.2%	Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	Binary
6.638	99.6%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
5.914	50.0%	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
5.812	51.9%	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
5.381	50.0%	Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?	Binary
5.201	96.8%	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
3.950	8.7%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
3.750	98.4%	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
3.702	26.6%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
2.557	12.2%	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
2.457	70.0%	Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?	Binary
2.139	9.9%	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
2.077	29.8%	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
1.924	25.2%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
1.178	43.1%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
1.067	19.0%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
0.870	2.2%	Will two or more spacecraft land on the Moon in 2025?	Binary
-1.271	98.4%	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
-1.586	10.5%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
-1.839	99.8%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-5.327	25.1%	What will be the percentage increase for the minimum wage in Colombia for 2026?	Continuous
-10.875	51.6%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
-12.421	90.0%	Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?	Binary
-13.876	34.8%	Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026?	Binary
-14.501	99.7%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-22.749	90.2%	Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
-36.321	60.0%	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
-38.699	90.2%	Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?	Binary
-40.065	42.1%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?	Binary
-54.972	99.8%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
-63.129	99.0%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
-236.378	90.2%	Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?	Binary
-345.018	94.0%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary