Jufda

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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40.98		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
128.416	88.8%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
121.804	88.3%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
120.050	93.7%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
116.922	96.2%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
103.023	97.6%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
101.444	97.3%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
98.883	95.9%	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
95.448	94.0%	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
93.967	99.8%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
89.472	92.6%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
86.596	80.6%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
84.515	82.5%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
81.425	63.5%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
77.233	95.3%	Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?	Binary
74.292	99.8%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
73.482	83.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
73.197	94.2%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
73.193	97.1%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
72.261	94.5%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
72.060	90.5%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
71.676	94.5%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
71.577	96.1%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
67.040	92.7%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
64.971	99.9%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
63.265	89.1%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
61.752	99.8%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
60.514	92.8%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
59.477	96.0%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
59.201	94.3%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
59.162	89.4%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
58.975	91.7%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
52.073	97.5%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
51.944	88.7%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
47.050	96.6%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
45.144	84.7%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
40.980	96.9%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
39.627	97.3%	How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?	Multiple Choice
38.597	89.1%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
37.966	94.5%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
37.853	95.2%	Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
37.464	76.8%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
37.161	94.0%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
35.952	95.3%	Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?	Binary
35.479	83.9%	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
35.028	88.6%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
34.962	98.3%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
34.748	91.9%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
34.418	83.8%	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
31.609	55.5%	What will be the highest price of Bitcoin in 2025?	Continuous
31.528	91.1%	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
30.644	95.3%	Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?	Binary
30.462	95.3%	Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?	Binary
29.253	98.2%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
28.829	94.5%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
28.806	94.4%	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
28.213	95.3%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
27.574	91.7%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
27.542	94.4%	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
26.193	94.5%	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
24.756	95.4%	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
24.444	93.9%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
23.427	91.2%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
23.184	93.9%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
21.788	83.2%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
20.400	93.7%	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
19.949	94.2%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
19.654	95.4%	Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?	Binary
19.600	94.3%	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
18.990	50.1%	How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?	Continuous
18.971	94.5%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
18.649	83.0%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
16.259	84.5%	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
16.132	83.6%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
15.879	95.3%	Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
15.124	99.6%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
14.949	95.4%	Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
13.588	50.4%	Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?	Binary
12.295	95.3%	Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?	Binary
11.412	95.3%	Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?	Binary
10.865	95.2%	Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?	Binary
10.166	20.3%	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
10.158	84.5%	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
9.644	87.8%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
7.927	89.7%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
6.851	88.5%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
6.594	95.3%	Will Spain's economy grow more than the Eurozone's between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025?	Binary
6.456	95.2%	Will Pedro Sánchez still be president of Spain at the end of 2025?	Binary
6.164	73.5%	Where will ManticAI place in the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025 leaderboard?	Continuous
5.600	9.3%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
5.391	95.4%	Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?	Binary
4.612	95.3%	Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	Binary
4.345	93.0%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
4.078	7.5%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
3.443	57.1%	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
2.381	94.6%	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
1.182	95.4%	Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?	Binary
1.007	25.7%	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
0.158	93.8%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
0.071	95.9%	Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?	Binary
-10.035	70.1%	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
-19.792	90.9%	What will be the percentage increase for the minimum wage in Colombia for 2026?	Continuous
-21.649	24.0%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
-62.331	40.4%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-91.856	99.0%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
-110.762	85.3%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary