Fuji_p

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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32.3		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
107.565	99.4%	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
99.196	99.2%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
96.726	92.6%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
91.844	92.1%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
91.228	97.7%	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
88.297	42.3%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
85.315	99.2%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
82.459	99.5%	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
80.829	99.5%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
80.563	96.6%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
74.031	98.9%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
72.584	54.5%	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
72.296	99.2%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
67.959	98.8%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
67.214	99.7%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
67.111	97.7%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
63.868	98.3%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
61.346	99.5%	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
57.773	92.5%	What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
56.896	98.5%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
55.194	92.9%	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
53.914	96.0%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (AMZN > WMT, May 2025)	Binary
53.119	98.0%	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
52.643	91.8%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
52.291	98.7%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
45.101	94.7%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
43.556	96.0%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
43.165	91.7%	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
42.394	98.2%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
38.967	78.4%	What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025?	Multiple Choice
38.152	99.2%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
33.162	87.9%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
30.618	99.9%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
30.486	77.3%	How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025?	Continuous
30.486	99.2%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
29.758	61.5%	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025?	Binary
29.003	99.1%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
28.758	87.7%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
26.771	72.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
25.928	88.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
25.836	92.6%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
25.308	50.0%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
23.876	72.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
23.853	53.3%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
23.295	53.3%	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
22.289	99.6%	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
21.318	91.4%	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
21.174	98.4%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
21.122	50.0%	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
20.734	96.0%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (MSFT > AAPL, May 2025)	Binary
20.624	72.7%	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
20.349	53.9%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
20.332	81.8%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
17.769	99.9%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
17.656	87.8%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
17.288	18.9%	How many seconds until midnight will the Doomsday Clock show on January 29, 2025?	Multiple Choice
16.408	87.8%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
15.072	53.9%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
14.366	50.0%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
13.386	81.9%	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
12.887	77.5%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
12.753	33.9%	Will Nasdaq-100 Futures outperform S&P 500 Futures in total price return over the following Q2 2025 two-week periods? (Apri 21 - May 2)	Binary
11.646	23.9%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
11.634	82.3%	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
11.049	50.0%	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
10.842	96.0%	Which company will have higher percentage return over the following months in Q2 2025? (NVDA > MSFT, May 2025)	Binary
9.606	18.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
9.167	53.3%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
8.782	16.3%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
8.721	82.1%	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
8.237	75.2%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
7.069	99.5%	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
6.683	53.9%	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
6.346	52.6%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
6.208	91.2%	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
5.857	61.0%	What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX?	Continuous
4.574	8.9%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
3.159	91.8%	What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories?	Continuous
2.627	8.4%	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
1.276	23.4%	What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
1.001	68.0%	Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?	Binary
-0.221	83.6%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
-9.343	98.2%	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-21.592	99.5%	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
-21.992	91.2%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
-33.013	42.2%	What will be the maximum intraday value of the VIX over the following weeks in Q2, 2025? (Apr 21 - Apr 25)	Continuous
-39.549	21.2%	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-51.171	99.4%	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
-51.903	96.1%	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
-64.356	81.5%	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
-79.368	98.2%	What will be the value of the CNN Fear & Greed Index for the following dates in Q2, 2025? (May 16)	Continuous
-143.066	96.2%	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
-174.699	94.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary