2024 In Focus
Forecast the events that will define the year ahead, in the ACX 2024 Prediction Contest:
- Will OpenAI reveal details about the rumored Q*?
- Will Netanyahu remain prime minister of Israel?
- Will the US government shut down?
This year, Metaculus is the host institution for writer Scott Alexander's annual forecasting-tradition-turned-tournament. Beat the crowd of 1000+ forecasters all contributing to a clearer picture of 2024, and you'll win forecasting glory and a share of the $2.5k prize pool!
Predict before Monday, January 22nd: For this contest, we will take a snapshot of forecasts, and these will determine winners at the end of the year.
Setting Forecasting Fitness Goals
We're excited to kick-start our 2024 forecasting regimen with the Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup! Build your track record if you're a newcomer to forecasting, or aim to up your game and score some accuracy medals --- all are welcome! New current events-focused questions open every week and resolve quickly to deliver fast feedback, help you get better calibrated, and keep you informed.
Start competing on questions like:
- Will Dune: Part Two beat Dune's opening weekend?
- When will the third Starship integrated flight test lift off?
While we're on this topic, we also want to extend a hearty congratulations to the champions of the Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup! partlygloudy won back-to-back gold medals in the last two quarterly cups, kqr won the silver --- and shared a fascinating retrospective on their blog --- and MikeGloudemans added a bronze medal to their medal display case.
2024 US Election Hub Updates
We enhanced our 2024 US election map page with additional forecast coverage, like electoral vote forecasts for parties' nominees and candidates' likelihoods of election victory. Find more, share forecast plots, and learn how to embed the map on your own page at our 2024 US Election Hub.
Listen: Metaculus's Tom Liptay on Skill, Scoring, and More
Professional forecaster Robert de Neufville interviews Metaculus's Product Director, Tom Liptay, on his new podcast: Telling the Future. They discuss how to measure true forecasting skill, the recent overhaul of Metaculus scoring, and the prospect of a World Series of Predictions.
The Chinese AI Chips Tournament Enters Round 2
China can't import advanced AI chips, but demand is strong and growing rapidly. What will China's AI chip design and manufacturing capabilities be in the coming years, and how will advances impact key issues in AI governance?
Round 2 of the Chinese AI Chips Tournament sheds light on these topics with a suite of relevant questions, including:
- Will we see a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027
- Will a Chinese company place a large order for US or US-allied AI chips by 2027?
Your predictions in this initiative support the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy, who aim to reduce risks linked to the development and deployment of frontier AI systems.
ICYMI: Multiple Choice Questions
At the end of last year, we finally launched a feature to support multiple choice questions, opening up new possibilities for forecasting on Metaculus. MCQs currently come with a convenient auto-sum button that supports more accurate, more coherent individual and aggregate forecasts with probabilities that always sum to 100%. Here are some example questions:
- What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI?
- Who will be the next pope?
- Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?