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Emma Louden is an astrophysicist and science communicator.
On April 3rd, NASA and the Canadian Space Agency jointly announced the crew of the Artemis II Mission. This flight will mark the first crewed test of the Orion Spacecraft and the Space Launch System, a behemoth of a rocket that generates 8.8 million pounds of thrust. The chosen astronauts include Christina Koch, Victor Glover, Reid Wiseman, and Jeremy Hansen. Christina Koch and Victor Glover will be the first woman and person of color to orbit the moon, respectively, and Jeremy Hansen will be the first Canadian to orbit the moon.
The NASA Artemis program is promoted as humanity's first journey to the Moon since the Apollo missions, with the United States leading the way while acknowledging the evolution of space exploration and globalization through partnerships with other countries and companies. However, the United States is just one of many countries with its sights set on the Moon. I predict that by 2030 six nationalities will have visited the Moon.
The Canadian Space Agency has long contributed to human spaceflight. They are an active partner in the International Space Station, sending astronauts, including Col. Chris Hadfield, and aiding infrastructure through the Canadarm. The Canadian Space Agency is also an international partner focused on lunar exploration, including the Lunar Gateway program. The Lunar Gateway is a proposed space station in lunar orbit that would serve as a launching ground for missions farther into the Solar System. Canada is contributing a robotic arm (Canadarm 3) that will be used to assemble the station and support scientific research. Between the inclusion of Jeremy Hansen in the Artemis II crew and the contributions to the Lunar Gateway, Canada’s partnership with the U.S. makes it likely that they will also land an astronaut on the Moon before 2030.
The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) is also an international partner in building the Lunar Gateway and a signatory of the Artemis Accords, a shared set of principles grounded in the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 that guide exploration of the moon in the 21st century. Drafted by NASA and the U.S. Department of State, the Accords have been signed by 23 countries so far. JAXA is building part of the Gateway's International Habitation module (I-Hab), which will provide the heart of Gateway life support capabilities and additional space where the crew will live, work, and conduct research during Artemis missions. The Japanese government has also supported space exploration by nurturing the country’s start-up space environment with funds for equity investments and loans. Given these investments and the partnerships with the Artemis and Gateway programs, I predict Japan will land an astronaut on the Moon before 2030.
The European Space Agency (ESA) is a multinational organization that counts Italy as one of its member states. The ESA has a long history of collaborating with NASA on space exploration and plays a crucial role in the Artemis program. In 2022, they signed a Memorandum of Understanding for cooperation on the Lunar Pathfinder mission, which aims to provide communications infrastructure on the moon. The ESA will build the satellite, and NASA will deliver it to the moon via a Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) delivery. The ESA has previously sent astronauts to the International Space Station’s missions and continues to partner with NASA on human exploration and science missions. Given this track record, it is likely that an ESA representative will walk on the Moon by 2030.
Russia was the first country to send a human into space and boasts a rich history of space exploration. Though initially planned for 2022, the Luna-25 mission faced significant delays. Russia's Luna-25 probe will be a robotic lander exploring the Moon's south pole as a potential water source. The resulting mission data will guide the selection of future crewed mission landing sites, as a permanent presence on the Moon necessitates water, and the poles are prime targets for this vital resource. These exploratory probes mark one step toward establishing a lunar settlement, which appears unlikely before 2030.
If the United States enters another Space Race in the 21st century, China will be its competitor. China is developing the Long March 9 rocket, which would be their most powerful rocket ever built and will be used for crewed Moon missions. Through the Chang'e missions, China is laying the groundwork for lunar expeditions. The upcoming Chang'e-6 mission will collect samples from the Moon's south pole and will inform resource decisions for future crewed missions. China is working diligently to reach the Moon before 2030 and beat the U.S. to the historic landing.
India, a country already demonstrating significant progress in space exploration, is determined to land an astronaut on the Moon before 2030. The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has launched several Moon missions, including the Chandrayaan-1 and Chandrayaan-2. However, these missions were uncrewed and focused primarily on studying the Moon's surface and mineral resources. To achieve its goal, India plans to develop Gaganyaan, a human-rated spacecraft. An uncrewed test mission is scheduled for 2023, with a crewed flight in 2025. ISRO is also developing the necessary technologies and infrastructure to support the mission. With ISRO's space exploration experience, India is well-positioned to make significant strides in lunar exploration and land an astronaut on the moon by 2030.
South Korea and the United Arab Emirates are among other countries that may reach the Moon before 2030. Both countries plan to send robotic missions in the coming decade and are preparing for crewed missions.
There is renewed interest in the Moon for reasons beyond international prestige and cutting-edge science and engineering. Essential resources within the lunar regolith are rare on Earth, and countries and companies that successfully extract these elements could reap substantial economic benefits. Both governments and private entities will be in fierce competition for these resources.
SpaceX is one company with its sights set on the Moon. They plan to use their massive spacecraft Starship to land on the Moon and maintain a human presence there. I predict that by 2030, up to eight people will be on the moon simultaneously, comprising both public and private citizens from multiple countries.
Satellite real estate on the Moon will be critical for communication, and the Moon itself offers a more cost-effective way to launch missions into the Solar System and beyond in terms of rocket delta-v. The lunar rush will therefore also be driven by the space agencies of the U.S. and other countries as they position themselves for missions beyond the Moon. That said, the Moon remains a daunting challenge, and while we will see boots on the ground before 2030, the chances of going beyond the Moon by then are slim.
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