Question

Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?

Resolved:No

22 comments22

Total Forecasters478

Community Prediction

0.2%

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.2%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

4.6

Community Baseline Score

92.3

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Mar 2, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 2, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Hungary and Poland’s patience with the Kiev regime is running out

Strategic Culture•Aug 31, 2025

Putin Ally Threatens Retaliatory Measures if Austria Joins NATO

Newsweek•Aug 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Hungary leave the EU before 2030?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

95%

Authors:

AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Mar 2, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 2, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Hungary and Poland’s patience with the Kiev regime is running out

Strategic Culture•Aug 31, 2025

Putin Ally Threatens Retaliatory Measures if Austria Joins NATO

Newsweek•Aug 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Hungary leave the EU before 2030?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

95%