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22 comments
478 forecasters

Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?

0.2%chance
0.2%chance
ResolvedNo
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
AlyssaStevens
Opened:Mar 2, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 2, 2022
Ukraine Conflict
Geopolitics
🏆 2022-2023 Leaderboard
Guardian logo
The Guardian view on EU accession for Ukraine: Orbán must not be allowed to call the tune | Editorial
Guardian•Oct 15, 2025
CNN logo
‘Firepower’ coming for Ukraine, Hegseth says, but Tomahawks not on agenda at NATO meeting
CNN•Oct 15, 2025
Newsweek logo
NATO Will Buy More US Weapons for Ukraine: Hegseth
Newsweek•Oct 15, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Hungary leave the EU before 2030?

5% chance
94

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States
30%
Poland
30%
Lithuania
29%
9 others
33 forecasters

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

95% chance
95
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