5 comments
136 forecasters
Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Mar 8, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2022
Resolved:Jan 1, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 7, 2022
Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?
33 forecasters
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?
30% chance
37
If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?
64.8% chance
31