20 comments
45 forecasters
Will a 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?
61%chance
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Opened:Apr 7, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2049
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 9, 2022
Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?
57% chance
222
Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?
43% chance
92
When will we have transformative AI?
Dec 2040
(Oct 2030 - Feb 2065)
Dec 2040
(Oct 2030 - Feb 2065)
162 forecasters