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Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048?
According to Baby Center, the most popular baby names for girls in 2018 are:
The most popular baby names for boys are:
If history is any guide, there will be a fair amout of turnover on this list 30 years from now.
Will any of the 20 names above remain somewhere in the top 10 in 2048?
For the purposes of this question, we would refer to the Social Security Administration's baby name popularity analysis.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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