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If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

60%chance

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

May 29, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Spot Scoring Time:

May 30, 2022

The Taiwan Tinderbox

China Deploys Military Against US Ally Over Disputed Territory

Newsweek•Oct 14, 2025

U.S. backs Philippine ally after China warns over vessel clash

NBC•Oct 14, 2025

Taiwan’s president pledges to accelerate the building of air defense system in face of China threat

Associated Press•Oct 10, 2025

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