18 comments
237 forecasters
Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?
95%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 5, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 5, 2022
Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?
97% chance
173
Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?
92% chance
139
Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?
19% chance
321