16 comments
173 forecasters
Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?
97%chance
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Jun 5, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 5, 2022
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?
76 forecasters
Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?
19% chance
321
Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?
92% chance
139