Question
When will the Metaculus Community break its worst prediction record?
Resolved:15 Nov 2022 15:30Total Forecasters11
Community Prediction
26 Jan 2023
(13 Nov 2022 03:46 - 18 Dec 2026)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 13 Nov 2022 03:46 | — |
| median | 26 Jan 2023 | — |
| upper 75% | 18 Dec 2026 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2040 | 5.0% | — |
What was the final result?15 Nov 2022 15:30
Community Baseline Score
0.2
Community Peer Score
0.9
Authors:
Opened:Jun 28, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Resolves:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 30, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Jun 28, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Resolves:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 30, 2022