102 forecasters

When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?

Current estimate

30 Dec 2027

(16 Nov 2026 - 24 Nov 2029)

Forecast Timeline

Top Key Factors

Diplomacy game length makes skill demonstration slow

Hastens

Ongoing LLM model experiments in related Diplomacy testing

Delays

Recent lack of advancement in specific AI development

Hastens