61 comments
100 forecasters
When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?
Current estimate
23 Apr 2027
Key Factors
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jul 13, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 15, 2022
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Nov 2030
(27 Jul 2026 - Mar 2040)
Nov 2030
(27 Jul 2026 - Mar 2040)
181 forecasters
When will an artificial intelligence achieve the main ending of "The Talos Principle" without being explicitly told about this goal?
Jul 2036
(May 2032 - >Dec 2039)
Jul 2036
(May 2032 - >Dec 2039)
7 forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Aug 2033
(22 Aug 2028 - Apr 2046)
Aug 2033
(22 Aug 2028 - Apr 2046)
1.8k forecasters