Question
When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?
Total Forecasters98
Community Prediction
26 Nov 2026
(26 Sep 2025 - 12 Sep 2028)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 26 Sep 2025 | — |
| median | 26 Nov 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | 12 Sep 2028 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2040 | 5.0% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Jul 13, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 15, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Jul 13, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 15, 2022