Question
When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?
Total Forecasters98
Community Prediction
04 Dec 2026
(04 Oct 2025 - 30 Sep 2028)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 04 Oct 2025 | — |
| median | 04 Dec 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | 30 Sep 2028 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2040 | 5.3% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Jul 13, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 15, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Jul 13, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 15, 2022