77 comments
101 forecasters

When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?

Current estimate
01 Jun 2027
Top Key Factors
Diplomacy game length makes skill demonstration slow
Impact
Earlier
Strength
2 votes
Ongoing LLM model experiments in related Diplomacy testing
Impact
later
Strength
3 votes
Recent lack of advancement in specific AI development
Impact
Earlier
Strength
3 votes